Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:29:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F4
0xf452…8ff9
other · 142 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$3,763 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$3,668 · open +$95
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4,363
Realized+$3,668
Unrealized+$95
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses68 / 105
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)173 / 142
History coverage197d
Avg bet$1,858
Trades / day13.2
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit5%
Chart Positions 3 History 173 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,501
7 days−$1,501
14 days−$1,501
30 days−$1,501
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 76¢ 89¢ $3,361 $3,898 +$536 (+16%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 22¢ 13¢ $818 $466 −$352 (-43%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 52¢ 0¢ $89 $0 −$89 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $52 $0 −$52 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $1,454 $0 −$1,454 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $1,501 $0 −$1,501 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from January 29 to January 31, 2026? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $52 $0 −$52 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $52 $0 −$52 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $82 $0 −$82 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $632 $0 −$632 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $52 $0 −$52 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from January 29 to January 31, 2026? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $52 $0 −$52 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 23 to February 25, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 29 to January 31, 2026? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 29 to January 31, 2026? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $809 $0 −$809 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Jun 12 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from January 29 to January 31, 2026? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Jun 12 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Jun 12 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Jun 12 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from January 29 to January 31, 2026? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Jun 12 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 29 to January 31, 2026? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Jun 12 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Jun 12 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Jun 12 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Jun 12 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from January 29 to January 31, 2026 Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Jun 12 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Jun 12 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Jun 12 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Jun 12 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Jun 12 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Jun 12 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Jun 12 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Jun 12 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Jun 12 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from January 29 to January 31, 2026 Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Jun 12 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 29 to January 31, 2026 Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Jun 12 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Jun 12 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Jun 12 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Jun 12 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Jun 12 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Jun 12 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Jun 12 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Jun 12 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Jun 12 $52 −$52 -100%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $102,052 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026? Apr 01 $1,250 +$667 +53%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026? Apr 01 $1,726 −$389 -22%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $4,153 +$1,640 +40%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 31 $1,586 −$1,329 -84%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 31 $70 +$59 +85%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 31 $234 −$161 -69%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026? Mar 31 $4,420 +$989 +22%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026? Mar 30 $1,035 −$920 -89%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026? Mar 30 $39 −$18 -45%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026? Mar 30 $56 −$51 -90%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026? Mar 29 $4,551 +$755 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026? Mar 28 $834 −$782 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026? Mar 28 $375 −$375 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 28 $2,358 +$1,011 +43%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 27 $809 −$809 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 58% +$5,886
politics 40% −$3
world 1% +$30
tech 0% −$18
sports 0% −$656
crypto 0% +$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $12 0m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $25 1m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 2m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 2m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $94 2m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 3m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $188 3m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $8 3m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $45 12m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $136 12m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $33 25m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $202 27m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $17 28m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $13 29m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $216 29m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $35 31m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $251 31m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $71 35m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $92 39m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $31 40m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $18 41m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $56 41m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $138 42m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $53 43m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 43m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 43m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $78 43m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 67¢ $402 45m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $345 46m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $525 47m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -97.1% -97.4% 0% 0% -10.8%
≤30d 35 -97.1% -97.4% 0% 0% -10.8%
≤90d 75 -60.2% -64.0% 19% 15% -9.9%
all 173 -10.8% -19.3% 39% 17% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover13.2 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.3% 17% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -27.1% 13% -18.3%
15% -34.1% 10% -26.1%
20% -40.6% 8% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,363.41 · official $4,363.41 (match) · 2819 history records