Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:23:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F4 0xf452…c0ef other 85 markets active 1h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$245 (-26%) realized −$193 · open −$52
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -55% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -60% what you keep after slip
Net edge-60%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate13%7W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$326now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$49
7 days−$77
14 days−$77
30 days−$77
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$173
crypto 23% −$49
sports 12% −$44
finance 4% −$33
tech 2% −$6
politics 1% −$11
world 1% +$7
economics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-59.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -38.8% -44.6% 24% 24% -43.4%
≤30d 25 -38.8% -44.6% 24% 24% -43.4%
≤90d 54 -69.8% -72.6% 11% 11% -75.4%
all 55 -55.4% -59.6% 13% 13% -56.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -59.6% 13% -56.9%
10% -63.5% 11% -61.1%
15% -67.0% 11% -64.8%
20% -70.3% 11% -68.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -73% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -55% · $-wt -52% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -68% → late -43% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$9 · ×2.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$326
Realized−$193
Unrealized−$52
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses7 / 48
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions30
Markets (closed)55 / 85
History coverage132d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 30 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of June? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $27 $43 +$16 (+59%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $50 $42 −$8 (-15%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $35 $38 +$2 (+7%)
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $29 $22 −$7 (-23%)
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $23 $21 −$2 (-7%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $14 $19 +$5 (+38%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-7%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-3%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $14 +$3 (+32%)
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 0¢ 6¢ $1 $11 +$10 (+1020%)
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $15 $7 −$7 (-50%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 14¢ 18¢ $6 $7 +$2 (+32%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $15 $7 −$7 (-50%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $7 $6 −$0 (-7%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $8 $6 −$1 (-18%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+7%)
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $13 $6 −$7 (-56%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-17%)
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Over 20¢ 10¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-52%)
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Over 10¢ 4¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-55%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $9 $4 −$4 (-50%)
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 7¢ 3¢ $11 $4 −$7 (-62%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-25%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 25¢ 14¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-42%)
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 7.5 Over 2¢ 1¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-59%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -99%
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $15 −$14 -98%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $7 +$4 +66%
Exact Score: France 1 - 3 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $8 −$8 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: France 2 - 3 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $5 −$4 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $21 +$9 +42%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 +$8 +164%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $11 −$11 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $28 +$36 +126%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $18 −$18 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $12 +$2 +14%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $33 −$13 -40%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $9 +$10 +115%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $28 −$28 -99%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026? Apr 02 $3 −$1 -38%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31? Apr 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 02 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Apr 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? Apr 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,000 by end of March? Mar 31 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Elon Musk pay TSA salaries? Mar 31 $2 −$1 -60%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 26? Mar 27 $8 −$8 -100%
U.S. strike on Somalia by February 28? Mar 26 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in February? Mar 26 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in February? Mar 26 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? Mar 26 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in February? Mar 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of February? Mar 26 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the February 2026 meeting? Mar 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 7? Mar 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on February 6 Mar 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $185 by end of February? Mar 26 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the ECB announce an increase at the February 2026 meeting? Mar 26 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 7? Mar 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $72,000 on February 7? Mar 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $74,000 on February 6? Mar 26 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Mar 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Lars Løkke Rasmussen be the next prime minister of Denmark after Mar 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 57m
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 20¢ $10 58m
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 10¢ $10 59m
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 4¢ $0 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 4¢ $4 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 2¢ $4 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 1¢ $4 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 1¢ $0 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 1¢ $0 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $6 1h
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL Yes 5¢ $23 1h
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL Yes 5¢ $5 1h
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL Yes 5¢ $3 1h
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL Yes 6¢ $5 1h
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 1h
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 1h
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 38¢ $11 2h
Exact Score: France 1 - 3 Senegal? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 1¢ $0 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $326.34 · official $326.36 (match) · 328 history records