Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T12:59:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F4 0xf451…820c crypto 71 markets active 2h ago coverage 250d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$213 (+1%) realized +$212 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate97%65W / 2L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$401per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$982now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$7
14 days+$19
30 days+$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 66% +$110
other 9% +$42
economics 7% +$92
finance 7% +$33
world 6% +$10
tech 5% −$81
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +5.9% -4.1% 100% 0% -4.1%
≤30d 6 +4.1% -5.8% 100% 17% -8.5%
≤90d 21 +2.8% -7.0% 100% 10% -8.6%
all 67 +2.8% -7.0% 97% 7% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 7% -8.8%
10% -15.9% 1% -17.6%
15% -24.0% 0% -25.5%
20% -31.5% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$567) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$91 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.27 per $1 lost it wins $3.27
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

250d coverage
Net worth$982
Realized+$212
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses65 / 2
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)67 / 71
History coverage250d
Avg bet$401
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $554 $551 −$3 (-1%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 97¢ 99¢ $195 $198 +$3 (+2%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $144 $145 +$1 (+0%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 100¢ 99¢ $89 $88 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June? Jun 19 $117 +$7 +6%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Jun 16 $469 +$4 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $47 by end of June? Jun 15 $40 +$6 +15%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 11 $567 +$2 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $702 +$1 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June? May 31 $58 +$2 +3%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 20 $698 +$5 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $140 end of April? May 07 $25 $0 +1%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? May 07 $31 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $150 end of April? May 07 $44 $0 +1%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? May 07 $102 +$4 +4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? May 01 $469 +$11 +2%
Will NVIDIA reach $228 in April? Apr 30 $10 +$1 +11%
Will NVIDIA dip to $168 in April? Apr 25 $40 +$2 +5%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of April 20 above $230? Apr 25 $5 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $176 Week of April 20 2026? Apr 25 $22 +$1 +3%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of April 20 above $170? Apr 24 $104 +$1 +1%
Will Real Salt Lake win on 2026-04-18? Apr 19 $465 +$4 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? Apr 19 $712 +$3 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? Apr 04 $711 +$1 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 26 $708 +$4 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Mar 21 $702 +$5 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 March 2-8? Mar 11 $65 $0 +0%
Will Phantom launch a token by March 31, 2026? Mar 09 $213 +$2 +1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 02 $701 +$1 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $40 by end of February? Feb 24 $198 +$2 +1%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,400 by end of February? Feb 22 $10 +$2 +23%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,000 by end of February? Feb 14 $694 +$4 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in January? Jan 29 $425 +$3 +1%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 28 $393 +$85 +22%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jan 01 $293 +$7 +2%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Dec 30 $108 +$16 +15%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? Dec 24 $101 +$7 +7%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 m Dec 19 $240 +$4 +2%
Will Base launch a token in 2025? Dec 18 $48 +$2 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 14 $228 +$12 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 11 $245 +$25 +10%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 11 $62 +$2 +3%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Dec 11 $10 $0 +1%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Dec 11 $20 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Dec 11 $10 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum hit $7,000 by December 31? Dec 06 $18 +$2 +8%
Will Ethereum hit $8,000 by December 31? Dec 06 $9 +$1 +7%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Dec 06 $10 $0 +4%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Nov 25 $409 −$91 -22%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Nov 25 $10 $0 +2%
Maduro out by November 30, 2025? Nov 25 $10 $0 +4%
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by December 31? Nov 25 $194 +$2 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in November? Nov 20 $29 +$1 +3%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Nov 20 $10 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $89 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $89 4d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $554 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $35 6d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $429 7d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $47 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $46 7d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $44 7d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $427 10d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $427 11d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $144 15d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $142 17d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 99¢ $567 20d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 97¢ $195 20d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL No 100¢ $703 22d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $54 22d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $5 25d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $702 28d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $703 34d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $698 47d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? SELL No 88¢ $480 52d
Will NVIDIA reach $228 in April? SELL No 100¢ $11 53d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? BUY No 95¢ $42 54d
Will NVIDIA dip to $168 in April? SELL No 99¢ $42 59d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? BUY No 99¢ $31 59d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of April 20 above $170? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 59d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? BUY No 96¢ $102 60d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of April 20 above $170? SELL Yes 100¢ $102 62d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? BUY No 86¢ $450 65d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? BUY No 86¢ $20 65d
Will Real Salt Lake win on 2026-04-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $469 65d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $981.63 · official $981.35 (match) · 221 history records