Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T21:14:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
F4 0xf44e…c6a0 other 114 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$104 (+8%) realized +$114 · open −$10
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate42%43W / 59L
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day27.7pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$198now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$56
7 days+$135
14 days+$129
30 days+$129
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% +$5
sports 37% +$110
crypto 0% +$5
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 99 -1.4% -10.8% 43% 42% +1.6%
≤30d 102 -3.6% -12.8% 42% 41% +1.0%
≤90d 102 -3.6% -12.8% 42% 41% +1.0%
all 102 -3.6% -12.8% 42% 41% +1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.8% 41% +1.0%
10% ← realistic here -21.1% 39% -8.7%
15% -28.8% 36% -17.5%
20% -35.7% 29% -25.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$5 · ×1.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$198
Realized+$114
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses43 / 59
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions10
Markets (closed)102 / 114
History coverage7d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day27.7
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $52 $52 +$0 (+0%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $35 $34 −$1 (-2%)
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 60¢ 58¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-2%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Over 45¢ 44¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-1%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 34¢ 35¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+2%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 1.5 Over 47¢ 50¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 40¢ 38¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-4%)
Norway vs. France: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 48¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $10 −$1 -7%
France to win the second half? Jun 26 $103 +$18 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 26? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 26? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $30 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France? Jun 26 $1 $0 -48%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? Jun 26 $5 −$3 -60%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -81%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 France? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -96%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 France? Jun 26 $1 $0 -48%
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $20 +$14 +67%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $12 +$9 +70%
France to score first vs. Norway? Jun 26 $20 +$10 +51%
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $14 −$14 -100%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $25 −$14 -55%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $28 −$15 -54%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $39 −$39 -100%
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 0 Sweden? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 26? Jun 26 $1 +$1 +56%
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $4 +$5 +124%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $25 −$22 -85%
United States to score first vs. Türkiye? Jun 26 $57 +$38 +66%
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 1 Sweden? Jun 26 $3 +$8 +257%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $15 +$10 +67%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $10 +$10 +101%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $12 +$8 +65%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $10 +$8 +79%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $30 +$32 +106%
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $2 −$1 -59%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $25 +$13 +52%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $20 +$12 +57%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 25 $4 −$3 -83%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Canada? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $12 −$12 -100%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $20 +$10 +48%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $10 +$15 +152%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $19 +$10 +50%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $20 +$24 +118%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $36 +$21 +56%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 24 $12 −$8 -68%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $25 0m
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $17 4m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 7m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $10 8m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $10 8m
France to win the second half? SELL Yes 99¢ $66 10m
France to win the second half? BUY Yes 63¢ $42 1h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 52¢ $53 1h
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 47¢ $31 1h
France to win the second half? SELL Yes 55¢ $55 1h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France? SELL Yes $1 1h
France to win the second half? BUY Yes 59¢ $61 1h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? SELL Yes $2 1h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? SELL Yes $0 1h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? BUY Yes $1 1h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 France? BUY Yes $1 1h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 France? BUY Yes $1 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $34 1h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $21 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $10 2h
France to score first vs. Norway? SELL Yes 99¢ $30 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 26? SELL Yes 99¢ $2 12h
Norway vs. France: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $9 16h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $9 17h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 AND Uruguay vs. Spain: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 AND BUY 26¢ $10 17h
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 61¢ $30 17h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes $4 17h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 26? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $198.17 · official $207.88 · 255 history records