Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:36:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F4 0xf44c…5527 other 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 564d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$32 (+7%) realized +$32 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate8%2W / 23L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% +$32
other 23% $0
politics 15% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 25 +0.3% -9.3% 8% 4% -3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 4% -3.2%
10% -18.0% 4% -12.4%
15% -25.9% 4% -20.9%
20% -33.2% 0% -28.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$0 · ×863.38 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×156.98 per $1 lost it wins $156.98
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

564d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses2 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage564d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $10 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $8 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $11 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 18 $11 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 21 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 14 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Panthers win the NFC Championship? Oct 23 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 11 $0 $0 +0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 11 $185 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2025? May 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 17 $1 $0 +0%
Heat vs. 76ers Mar 30 $86 +$32 +37%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Feb 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will Stuttgart win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 24 $0 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 16 $0 $0 -12%
Everton wins the Premier League? Dec 16 $0 $0 -17%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 12 $0 $0 +0%
Will the Browns win Super Bowl 2025? Nov 30 $59 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 1h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $8 21d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $8 21d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $11 59d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $11 59d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 82d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 83d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $10 96d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $10 97d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $11 118d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $11 118d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 100¢ $10 146d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $10 146d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $11 184d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $11 184d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 98¢ $9 208d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 98¢ $9 208d
Will the Panthers win the NFC Championship? SELL No 99¢ $12 236d
Will the Panthers win the NFC Championship? BUY No 100¢ $12 236d
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $10 267d
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $10 268d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $1 293d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $0 293d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes $1 293d
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $0 331d
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $0 331d
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $1 331d
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes $1 331d
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $0 365d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 70 history records