Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:49:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F4 0xf44b…a2bd other 64 markets active 1h ago coverage 586d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$24 (-0%) realized −$24 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate22%14W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$291per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 73% −$14
politics 16% −$9
other 6% −$11
sports 2% +$8
world 1% +$1
crypto 1% $0
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.1% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 12 -0.0% -9.6% 25% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 50 -9.9% -18.5% 18% 8% -12.9%
all 63 -4.6% -13.7% 22% 11% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 11% -9.6%
10% -21.9% 11% -18.3%
15% -29.5% 10% -26.2%
20% -36.4% 8% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 71% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$3 · ×2.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

586d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses14 / 49
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)63 / 64
History coverage586d
Avg bet$291
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana dip to $40 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $57 $57 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 28 $31 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $21 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 26 $12 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $11 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $15 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $17 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $25 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $15 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $101 $0 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $18 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 05 $25 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in May? Jun 05 $31 $0 +0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? May 29 $12 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $14 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec May 22 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 21 $18 $0 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 19 $19 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $81 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $77 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $81 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 07 $80 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $79 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $83 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $79 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $81 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 02 $84 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 01 $85 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $80 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 24 $86 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 24 $80 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 23 $84 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $86 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Apr 22 $86 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $80 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $83 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $79 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 18 $87 $0 -0%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 10 $9 −$9 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 10 $12 +$7 +62%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $13 +$3 +24%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 07 $11 −$11 -100%
Blackhawks vs. Sharks Apr 07 $12 +$7 +59%
Penguins vs. Lightning Apr 06 $10 +$6 +64%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in March? Apr 06 $21 $0 +1%
Based FDV above $2B one day after launch? Apr 06 $43 $0 +0%
Bruins vs. Blue Jackets Apr 02 $20 −$20 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Blue Jackets Apr 02 $22 −$22 -100%
Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-6.5) Apr 02 $31 −$31 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $31 1h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $31 3h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $12 2d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $12 2d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $11 7d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $11 7d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $15 8d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $15 8d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $17 9d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $17 9d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $21 9d
Will Solana dip to $40 in June? BUY No 100¢ $57 11d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 13d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 14d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $15 20d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $15 20d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $16 22d
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $18 22d
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $18 22d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $16 23d
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $12 30d
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 30d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $16 32d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $16 32d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $25 32d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $14 33d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $14 33d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $15 36d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $15 36d
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $18 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.72 · official $56.72 (match) · 248 history records