Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T17:15:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F4 0xf447…324f crypto 243 markets active 0h ago coverage 57d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$193 (+1%) realized +$168 · open +$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate44%106W / 136L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day26.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 57d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,360
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 +9.2% -1.2% 50% 50% +8.1%
≤30d 72 +9.2% -1.2% 50% 50% +8.1%
≤90d 242 -8.3% -17.0% 44% 35% -15.5%
all 242 -8.3% -17.0% 44% 35% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.0% 35% -15.5%
10% ← realistic here -24.9% 23% -23.6%
15% -32.2% 20% -31.0%
20% -38.8% 18% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$30 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized+$168
Unrealized+$25
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses106 / 136
Open positions1
Markets (closed)242 / 243
History coverage57d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day26.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 242 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Down 0¢ 50¢ $0 $25 +$25 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 51 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$23 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 22 $25 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 22 $24 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 22 $26 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 22 $24 +$30 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 22 $23 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 22 $24 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 22 $23 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 22 $26 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 22 $23 +$27 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 22 $21 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$20 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 22 $25 −$24 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 22 $22 +$36 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 22 $25 −$24 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 22 $26 +$26 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 22 $23 −$22 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 22 $24 −$23 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 22 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 22 $23 −$22 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 22 $24 +$28 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 22 $25 +$19 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 22 $25 +$21 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 22 $25 +$22 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 22 $25 +$23 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 22 $25 +$25 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 22 $24 +$20 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 22 $25 +$24 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 22 $25 +$25 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 22 $11 +$14 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 22 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 22 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 22 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 22 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 22 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 22 $12 +$13 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 22 $12 +$13 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 22 $14 +$11 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 22 $14 +$11 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 22 $16 +$9 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 22 $15 +$10 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $25 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $25 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $25 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $24 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $23 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $24 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $24 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $23 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $21 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $23 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $24 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $25 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.25 · official $25.28 (match) · 1613 history records