Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:53:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F4 0xf447…3469 crypto 61 markets active 1h ago coverage 249d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$317 (+1%) realized +$316 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate91%52W / 5L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$398per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$939now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$3
30 days+$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 67% +$45
other 14% +$200
economics 11% +$39
politics 4% +$4
tech 2% +$5
finance 2% +$2
world 1% +$17
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 6 +5.0% -5.0% 100% 0% -5.2%
≤90d 11 +3.5% -6.3% 100% 0% -6.2%
all 57 +1.9% -7.8% 91% 7% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 7% -8.3%
10% -16.6% 2% -17.1%
15% -24.7% 0% -25.1%
20% -32.1% 0% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$509) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$14 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×6.54 per $1 lost it wins $6.54
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

249d coverage
Net worth$939
Realized+$316
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses52 / 5
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)57 / 61
History coverage249d
Avg bet$398
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $358 $356 −$1 (-0%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 99¢ 99¢ $314 $313 −$0 (-0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $134 $134 +$0 (+0%)
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $132 $134 +$2 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Jun 23 $148 +$1 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Jun 15 $265 +$2 +1%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June? Jun 08 $164 +$15 +9%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 07 $163 +$17 +10%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 06 $145 +$3 +2%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? Jun 04 $246 +$17 +7%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 23 $162 $0 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? May 06 $141 +$4 +3%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 25 $160 +$3 +2%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $125 by end of March? Apr 06 $181 $0 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June? Mar 31 $371 +$17 +4%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Mar 24 $181 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? Mar 22 $550 +$1 +0%
Trump out as President by March 31? Mar 19 $538 +$12 +2%
Will NVIDIA dip to $116 in March? Mar 12 $139 +$2 +2%
SBF released from custody in 2026? Mar 10 $163 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-02-26? Mar 03 $12 +$2 +15%
T20 World Cup: India vs Zimbabwe Mar 03 $55 $0 +0%
Opinion FDV above $2B one day after launch? Mar 01 $200 +$33 +16%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,600 by end of February? Feb 25 $67 $0 +0%
Opinion FDV above $4B one day after launch? Feb 22 $260 +$3 +1%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of February? Feb 21 $274 +$1 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.90 February 9-15? Feb 20 $341 +$1 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 11 $338 +$2 +1%
Trump out as President before 2027? Feb 11 $347 −$8 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 30? Jan 30 $439 +$20 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in January? Jan 30 $148 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in January? Jan 28 $287 +$3 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 January 19-25? Jan 23 $147 +$1 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 22 $840 +$6 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $106,000 January 12-18? Jan 21 $43 +$1 +2%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Dec 30 $224 +$64 +29%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? Dec 28 $330 +$17 +5%
Will StandX launch a token in 2025? Dec 26 $195 +$28 +14%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 24 $828 +$13 +2%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Dec 10 $300 +$30 +10%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 05 $291 +$5 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 05 $510 +$22 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in November? Nov 29 $297 +$3 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025? Nov 25 $334 −$43 -13%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 16 $14 −$5 -33%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? Nov 16 $89 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2025? Nov 16 $97 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 12 $509 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $93k November 3-9? Nov 10 $170 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,900 November 3-9? Nov 10 $1,134 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k November 3-9? Nov 09 $1,131 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $120,000 on November 8? Nov 09 $1,300 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,900 and $4,000 on November 6? Nov 07 $1,299 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,000 on November 6? Nov 05 $1,297 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $314 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $148 24h
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 100¢ $166 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $134 4d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $134 8d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 98¢ $133 9d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $119 10d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $14 10d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $358 14d
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $179 15d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $180 16d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $148 17d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 99¢ $2 17d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 99¢ $1 17d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 99¢ $23 17d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 99¢ $25 17d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 99¢ $11 17d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 99¢ $10 17d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 99¢ $1 17d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 99¢ $1 17d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 99¢ $1 17d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 99¢ $6 17d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 99¢ $52 17d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 99¢ $4 17d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 99¢ $8 17d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 99¢ $1 17d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 99¢ $1 17d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $265 19d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $261 19d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $1 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $938.60 · official $938.60 (match) · 157 history records