Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:52:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
F4 0xf441…e318 other 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$21 (-5%) realized −$20 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +42% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +28% what you keep after slip
Net edge+28%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate59%10W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$107now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 39% −$3
crypto 30% +$1
culture 13% $0
sports 10% −$31
world 5% +$8
other 2% −$2
finance 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+28.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.7% -10.2% 33% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 9 +1.9% -7.8% 44% 11% -9.3%
≤90d 16 +50.7% +36.4% 62% 38% -15.7%
all 17 +41.9% +28.4% 59% 35% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +28.4% 35% -16.3%
10% +16.1% 12% -24.3%
15% +4.9% 12% -31.6%
20% -5.4% 6% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +42% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +87% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$107
Realized−$20
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses10 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)17 / 20
History coverage149d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 93¢ 92¢ $57 $56 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 95¢ $47 $46 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 89¢ 86¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 28 $21 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 28 $22 $0 -0%
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House Jun 28 $78 −$2 -3%
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 26 $33 $0 -1%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 26 $38 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 26 $49 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $1 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $34 +$2 +5%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $10 +$2 +17%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 28 $33 −$33 -99%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 28 $6 +$1 +15%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 28 $1 $0 +36%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 28 $1 +$8 +809%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? May 06 $1 $0 +4%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? May 06 $1 $0 +14%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? May 06 $1 $0 +18%
USD.AI FDV above $500M one day after launch? Feb 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $47 1h
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 89¢ $4 1h
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $57 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $21 1h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $22 1h
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House SELL No 81¢ $76 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $21 47h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $22 47h
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House BUY No 82¢ $78 47h
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 88¢ $32 47h
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 93¢ $38 47h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $49 47h
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 88¢ $5 13d
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 93¢ $38 13d
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 88¢ $27 13d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $49 13d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $1 13d
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $36 13d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $1 30d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 85¢ $10 30d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 58¢ $33 30d
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $34 30d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? SELL No 100¢ $7 30d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? SELL No 99¢ $1 30d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 53d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? BUY No 72¢ $1 53d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? BUY No 86¢ $2 53d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? BUY No 86¢ $2 53d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? BUY No 86¢ $2 53d
USD.AI FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY No 91¢ $1 119d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $107.20 · official $107.20 (match) · 66 history records