Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T17:55:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
F4 0xf440…314a politics 10 markets active 0h ago coverage 245d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$191 · open +$190
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$110per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$208now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 74% +$190
world 20% $0
economics 4% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 5 +0.2% -9.4% 20% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.3%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

245d coverage
Net worth$208
Realized−$191
Unrealized+$190
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Open positions5
Markets (closed)5 / 10
History coverage245d
Avg bet$110
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 0¢ 99¢ $0 $189 +$189 (+0%)
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? No 96¢ 97¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+0%)
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $209 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $219 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $209 $0 -0%
Trump says Moon Landing faked in 2025? Dec 17 $19 $0 +2%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 20 $49 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 21m
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $189 1h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $208 1h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 4h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $218 5h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 10h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $219 11h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $189 11h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $189 19h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $209 21h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 23h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $208 24h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $209 26h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 27h
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? BUY No 96¢ $15 187d
Trump says Moon Landing faked in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $19 187d
Trump says Moon Landing faked in 2025? BUY No 98¢ $19 224d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? SELL No 100¢ $49 245d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $49 245d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $208.43 · official $208.43 (match) · 20 history records