Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T12:56:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
F4 0xf43f…3b20 sports 302 markets active 1h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$71 (-1%) realized −$48 · open −$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%122W / 177L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day10.8pace
Fees−$168est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$227now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$113
7 days+$87
14 days−$150
30 days−$336
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$189
other 9% −$111
crypto 6% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +0.9% -8.7% 45% 45% -0.8%
≤30d 159 -8.7% -17.4% 42% 42% -12.5%
≤90d 299 -7.7% -16.5% 41% 41% -11.3%
all 299 -7.7% -16.5% 41% 41% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 41% -11.3%
10% -24.5% 40% -19.8%
15% -31.8% 40% -27.5%
20% -38.5% 40% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$35 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$227
Realized−$48
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses122 / 177
Est. fees paid−$168
Open positions3
Markets (closed)299 / 302
History coverage44d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day10.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 299 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Natus Vincere 49¢ 62¢ $98 $125 +$27 (+28%)
ITF Porto: Francisco Rocha vs Mert Alkaya Francisco Rocha 48¢ 24¢ $100 $51 −$49 (-49%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert Zizou Bergs 31¢ 30¢ $51 $50 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 143 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Kayseri: Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine vs Keshav Chopra Jun 27 $55 −$54 -98%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 27 $99 +$108 +109%
Rainbow Six Siege: 100 Thieves vs For Fun Esports (BO1) - North Americ Jun 27 $96 +$105 +110%
ITF Claremont: Alexandra Vagramov vs Thara Gowda Jun 26 $50 +$46 +91%
Rainbow Six Siege: Cloud9 vs Spacestation Gaming (BO1) - North America Jun 26 $57 −$56 -98%
France leading at halftime? Jun 26 $32 +$25 +79%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Ugo Humbert Jun 26 $107 −$105 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Silva vs Wild Jun 26 $64 +$75 +116%
Set 1 Winner: Marozsan vs Fokina Jun 26 $120 −$118 -99%
Piracicaba: Matias Soto vs Gonzalo Villanueva Jun 26 $46 −$45 -98%
Targu Mures: Sumit Nagal vs Cezar Cretu Jun 26 $67 +$86 +129%
Set 1 Winner: Santamarta vs Montes Jun 26 $33 +$47 +145%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 24 $8 −$7 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$9 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 24 $34 −$33 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 24 $17 +$26 +151%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Set 1 Winner: Nakashima vs Cerundolo Jun 20 $7 −$7 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $19 −$12 -63%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 19 $8 −$8 -99%
Alba Berlin vs. FC Bayern Munchen Jun 19 $60 −$52 -86%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 19 $20 +$25 +125%
Besiktas vs. Fenerbahce Jun 19 $7 +$18 +246%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $11 −$10 -98%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima Jun 19 $27 −$26 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Minaur vs Nakashima Jun 19 $13 −$13 -99%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $14 −$14 -98%
Dublin: Gauthier Onclin vs Kyrian Jacquet Jun 15 $11 −$11 -98%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $6 −$5 -97%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $57 −$51 -90%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $31 +$26 +82%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $18 +$13 +73%
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco Jun 14 $55 −$54 -98%
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Alba Berlin Jun 14 $55 −$54 -98%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Marcos Giron Jun 14 $53 −$52 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $99 −$98 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $139 −$137 -99%
Scotland leading at halftime? Jun 14 $100 +$139 +139%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $152 −$150 -99%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
La Laguna Tenerife vs. Barcelona Jun 13 $264 +$310 +117%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 13 $102 +$111 +110%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Michael Mmo Jun 13 $76 +$77 +101%
Set 1 Winner: Bublik vs Fritz Jun 13 $37 +$38 +105%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $63 +$63 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY Natus Vincere 49¢ $100 33m
ITF Porto: Francisco Rocha vs Mert Alkaya BUY Francisco Rocha 48¢ $102 52m
ITF Kayseri: Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine vs Keshav Chopra BUY Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine 45¢ $55 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert BUY Zizou Bergs 31¢ $52 1h
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Athletics 47¢ $99 10h
Rainbow Six Siege: 100 Thieves vs For Fun Esports (BO1) - North Americ BUY 100 Thieves 50¢ $50 14h
Rainbow Six Siege: 100 Thieves vs For Fun Esports (BO1) - North Americ BUY 100 Thieves 44¢ $46 14h
ITF Claremont: Alexandra Vagramov vs Thara Gowda SELL Alexandra Vagramov 99¢ $96 14h
ITF Claremont: Alexandra Vagramov vs Thara Gowda BUY Alexandra Vagramov 51¢ $50 15h
Rainbow Six Siege: Cloud9 vs Spacestation Gaming (BO1) - North America BUY Cloud9 51¢ $57 15h
France leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $57 16h
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 55¢ $32 19h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Ugo Humbert BUY Jack Draper 33¢ $107 19h
Set 1 Winner: Silva vs Wild SELL Wild 99¢ $139 19h
Set 1 Winner: Silva vs Wild BUY Wild 45¢ $64 20h
Set 1 Winner: Marozsan vs Fokina BUY Fokina 59¢ $120 20h
Piracicaba: Matias Soto vs Gonzalo Villanueva BUY Matias Soto 31¢ $36 20h
Piracicaba: Matias Soto vs Gonzalo Villanueva BUY Matias Soto 19¢ $10 21h
Targu Mures: Sumit Nagal vs Cezar Cretu SELL Sumit Nagal 100¢ $153 21h
Targu Mures: Sumit Nagal vs Cezar Cretu BUY Sumit Nagal 43¢ $20 22h
Targu Mures: Sumit Nagal vs Cezar Cretu BUY Sumit Nagal 43¢ $46 22h
Set 1 Winner: Santamarta vs Montes SELL Montes 100¢ $80 23h
Set 1 Winner: Santamarta vs Montes BUY Montes 40¢ $33 24h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 10¢ $1 3d
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces SELL Las Vegas Aces 5¢ $1 3d
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY Las Vegas Aces 28¢ $8 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $14 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $4 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $226.83 · official $226.83 (match) · 512 history records