Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:38:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F4 0xf43f…ed1c crypto 904 markets active 5d ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$80 (-3%) realized −$80 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate53%476W / 428L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day27.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$9
14 days−$18
30 days−$235
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$233
other 4% −$4
sports 1% −$1
weather 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +1.4% -8.3% 28% 16% -13.1%
≤30d 483 -18.5% -26.3% 30% 22% -18.6%
≤90d 904 -8.8% -17.5% 53% 32% -14.4%
all 904 -8.8% -17.5% 53% 32% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.5% 32% -14.4%
10% ← realistic here -25.4% 19% -22.6%
15% -32.6% 13% -30.0%
20% -39.2% 10% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$80
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses476 / 428
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)904 / 904
History coverage65d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day27.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 904 Trades
no open positions (188 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$1 -14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$4 +374%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$2 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 -4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $8 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$4 +398%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$2 -46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$2 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 11 $9 −$1 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $14 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $11 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 11 $8 $0 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$1 -39%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 11 $9 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $9 −$1 -13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $9 $0 -5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 11 $9 +$1 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 -3%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +37%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 -19%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 05 $1 +$2 +212%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2975 history records