Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:08:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F4 0xf43f…79ed sports 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1,631 (-17%) realized −$1,629 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate54%13W / 11L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$389per market
Trades / day22.0pace
Fees−$89est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$458now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% −$1,619
other 29% −$102
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-28.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -21.3% -28.8% 54% 33% -26.3%
≤30d 24 -21.3% -28.8% 54% 33% -26.3%
≤90d 24 -21.3% -28.8% 54% 33% -26.3%
all 24 -21.3% -28.8% 54% 33% -26.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.8% 33% -26.3%
10% ← realistic here -35.6% 25% -33.3%
15% -41.8% 12% -39.8%
20% -47.5% 8% -45.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$576) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -19% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$229 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$458
Realized−$1,629
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses13 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$89
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 25
History coverage4d
Avg bet$389
Trades / day22.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $460 $458 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $536 −$532 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $349 −$224 -64%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $301 −$254 -84%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $293 +$67 +23%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $365 +$115 +32%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $138 +$12 +9%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $283 +$17 +6%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $110 −$91 -82%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $241 −$154 -64%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $656 +$62 +10%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $576 +$126 +22%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $274 +$17 +6%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $207 −$165 -80%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $581 −$375 -64%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $382 +$194 +51%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1,298 −$676 -52%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1,620 +$27 +2%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $907 +$125 +14%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $53 +$13 +24%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $42 +$18 +44%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $43 −$42 -99%
Spread: Korea Republic (-2.5) Jun 11 $4 −$4 -97%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $8 +$12 +140%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $461 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 75¢ $536 4h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 32¢ $125 4h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 10¢ $47 4h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $301 6h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 87¢ $349 6h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 81¢ $264 7h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 81¢ $29 7h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Japan 92¢ $1 7h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Japan 92¢ $121 7h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Japan 92¢ $17 7h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 5¢ $19 7h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 18¢ $88 8h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $87 8h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $154 8h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $353 9h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $11 9h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $110 10h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 90¢ $8 10h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 90¢ $348 10h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 90¢ $363 10h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 82¢ $560 10h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 82¢ $96 10h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) SELL Germany 95¢ $385 10h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) SELL Germany 95¢ $25 10h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) SELL Germany 95¢ $75 10h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) SELL Germany 95¢ $1 10h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) SELL Germany 95¢ $38 10h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) SELL Germany 95¢ $55 10h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) SELL Germany 95¢ $38 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $457.50 · official $457.50 (match) · 99 history records