Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:24:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
F4 0xf43d…8abc sports 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$212 (-7%) realized −$212 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$648per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$346
7 days+$295
14 days+$100
30 days+$100
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% +$151
other 31% −$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-26.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +8.9% -1.4% 50% 50% +1.0%
≤30d 5 -19.2% -26.9% 40% 40% -6.7%
≤90d 5 -19.2% -26.9% 40% 40% -6.7%
all 5 -19.2% -26.9% 40% 40% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.9% 40% -6.7%
10% -33.9% 40% -15.7%
15% -40.3% 20% -23.8%
20% -46.1% 20% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$291 vs −$161 · ×1.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$212
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage12d
Avg bet$648
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $1,511 +$346 +23%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,015 −$51 -5%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $198 −$195 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 09 $240 −$236 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $274 +$236 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 94¢ $1,857 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 76¢ $1,511 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 48¢ $964 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 49¢ $1,015 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $198 10d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 50¢ $240 11d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 53¢ $274 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 8 history records