Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:53:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F4 0xf43d…1220 politics 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 65d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$479 (-47%) realized −$459 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -64% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -68% what you keep after slip
Net edge-68%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$128per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 65d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 88% −$408
sports 7% −$72
other 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-67.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 4 -64.5% -67.8% 0% 0% -53.1%
all 4 -64.5% -67.8% 0% 0% -53.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -67.8% 0% -53.1%
10% -70.9% 0% -57.6%
15% -73.7% 0% -61.7%
20% -76.3% 0% -65.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -48% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -64% · $-wt -48% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$115 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$459
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 4
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)4 / 8
History coverage65d
Avg bet$128
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-0%)
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 05 $74 −$72 -98%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 05 $504 −$280 -56%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 16 $323 −$61 -19%
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 15 $56 −$47 -83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $21 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $14 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $16 1h
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 31¢ $74 41d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 2¢ $23 41d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 18¢ $198 60d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 18¢ $198 60d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 24¢ $6 62d
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 0¢ $6 62d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 24¢ $117 62d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 13¢ $117 62d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 27¢ $170 62d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 13¢ $81 62d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 15¢ $69 62d
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 62d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 62d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 20¢ $62 62d
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 2¢ $20 62d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 31¢ $68 63d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 14¢ $64 63d
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 63d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 22¢ $28 64d
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 23¢ $32 64d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 6¢ $29 64d
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 14¢ $20 65d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 19¢ $80 65d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.55 · official $49.56 (match) · 26 history records