Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:03:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

F4 0xf43c…1a4b other 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 250d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$5 (-70%) realized −$5 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -88% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -89% what you keep after slip

Net edge-89%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$2per market

Trades / day0.0pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 250d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-89.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	no closed markets
≤90d	no closed markets
all	2	-88.2%	-89.4%	0%	0%	-83.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-89.4%	0%	-83.1%
10%	-90.4%	0%	-84.8%
15%	-91.3%	0%	-86.2%
20%	-92.2%	0%	-87.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI — too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -88% · $-wt -81% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

— vs −$2 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

250d coverage

Net worth$1

Realized−$5

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)2 / 3

History coverage250d

Avg bet$2

Trades / day0.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	No	22¢	22¢	$1	$1	+$0 (+0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 15?	Nov 06	$1	−$1	-99%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31?	Oct 14	$5	−$4	-77%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	BUY No	22¢	$1	1h
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 15?	SELL Yes	0¢	$0	221d
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 15?	BUY Yes	56¢	$1	244d
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31?	SELL Yes	5¢	$1	244d
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31?	BUY Yes	17¢	$3	245d
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31?	BUY Yes	30¢	$1	248d
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31?	BUY Yes	60¢	$1	249d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.00 · official $1.00 (match) · 7 history records