Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:51:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F4 0xf43c…a89b crypto 26 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (118 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$228 (+13%) realized +$280 · open −$52
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +119% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +69% what you keep after slip
Net edge+69%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate54%13W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day118.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (118 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+98.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +119.1% +98.3% 54% 50% -5.4%
≤30d 24 +119.1% +98.3% 54% 50% -5.4%
≤90d 24 +119.1% +98.3% 54% 50% -5.4%
all 24 +119.1% +98.3% 54% 50% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover118.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +98.3% 50% -5.4%
10% ← realistic here +79.3% 46% -14.4%
15% +62.0% 33% -22.7%
20% +46.1% 25% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +119% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +131% → late +107% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$35 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized+$280
Unrealized−$52
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses13 / 11
Open positions2
Markets (closed)24 / 26
History coverage1d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day118.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Down 63¢ 55¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-13%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Up 64¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 24 $64 +$34 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 24 $54 +$12 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 24 $36 +$18 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 24 $21 +$15 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 24 $25 +$9 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 24 $16 −$14 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 24 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 24 $147 −$147 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 24 $254 +$25 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 24 $183 +$70 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 24 $154 −$46 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 24 $31 +$9 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 24 $137 −$27 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 24 $272 +$30 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 24 $36 −$21 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 24 $15 +$7 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 24 $76 +$44 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$16 +312%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 24 $11 +$170 +1595%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $15 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $15 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $36 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $15 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $15 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $15 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $15 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $3 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $35 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $15 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $54 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $15 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $15 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $15 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Up 7¢ $2 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $16 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $20 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $105 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $106 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $21 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $21 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $25 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $25 51m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.37 · official $42.23 · 143 history records