Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T18:42:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F4 0xf439…bf9c sports 494 markets active 2h ago coverage 218d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$2,933 (+2%) realized +$2,955 · open −$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate51%249W / 239L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$386per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$765est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$262now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$349
7 days+$1,533
14 days+$1,533
30 days+$1,868
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% +$6,583
other 45% −$2,278
world 2% +$300
crypto 0% −$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +87.4% +69.6% 71% 71% +65.0%
≤30d 8 +87.7% +69.8% 75% 75% +66.1%
≤90d 206 -7.2% -16.0% 48% 48% -14.3%
all 488 +0.8% -8.8% 51% 51% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 51% -7.3%
10% -17.6% 51% -16.2%
15% -25.5% 51% -24.3%
20% -32.8% 49% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$371 vs −$367 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

218d coverage
Net worth$262
Realized+$2,955
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses249 / 239
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$765
Open positions1
Markets (closed)488 / 494
History coverage218d
Avg bet$386
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 488 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 57¢ 52¢ $285 $262 −$22 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 143 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) AND Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $198 +$349 +176%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $230 −$226 -98%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score AND Japan vs. Sweden: Both Te Jun 26 $204 +$409 +201%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score AND Will Bosnia and Herzeg Jun 25 $254 +$355 +139%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $356 +$417 +117%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score AND Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $306 +$546 +178%
Argentina vs. Austria: Austria O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $322 −$317 -99%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $375 +$335 +90%
Athletic Club vs. RC Celta de Vigo: Both Teams to Score May 18 $405 +$395 +98%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $430 +$470 +109%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $874 −$860 -98%
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $421 −$414 -98%
Olympique de Marseille vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901: O/U 3.5 May 17 $457 −$450 -98%
Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Valencia CF: O/U 2.5 May 17 $433 −$426 -99%
Levante UD vs. RCD Mallorca: Both Teams to Score May 17 $520 −$513 -99%
Elche CF vs. Getafe CF: Both Teams to Score May 17 $379 −$373 -98%
Spread: SSC Napoli (-1.5) May 17 $393 +$527 +134%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $502 −$495 -99%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $441 −$435 -99%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $529 +$227 +43%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $583 +$427 +73%
Villarreal CF vs. Sevilla FC: Both Teams to Score May 16 $476 +$334 +70%
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Athletic Club: Both Teams to Score May 13 $432 −$432 -100%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-10? May 13 $812 +$788 +97%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $222 +$378 +170%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $389 +$321 +83%
Will Real Racing Club win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $350 +$450 +129%
AJ Auxerre vs. OGC Nice: Both Teams to Score May 11 $438 +$362 +83%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Everton FC: Both Teams to Score May 11 $446 +$354 +79%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $433 +$387 +90%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $558 +$462 +83%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $29 −$29 -98%
AS Monaco FC vs. Lille OSC: O/U 2.5 May 10 $408 −$406 -100%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $427 −$421 -99%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5 May 10 $419 −$413 -99%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $436 −$428 -98%
Arsenal FC leading at halftime? May 10 $280 −$280 -100%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $354 −$347 -98%
Athletic Club vs. Valencia CF: O/U 2.5 May 10 $374 −$368 -98%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $367 −$361 -98%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $286 −$281 -98%
Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $231 −$227 -98%
Will SV 07 Elversberg win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $368 −$368 -100%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-05-09? May 10 $123 +$109 +89%
Sevilla FC vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: Both Teams to Score May 10 $387 +$513 +133%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-05-09? May 10 $439 +$461 +105%
Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 2.5 May 10 $1,027 +$693 +67%
Spread: Como 1907 (-1.5) May 10 $367 −$361 -98%
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $510 −$510 -100%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. RC Celta de Vigo: Both Teams to Score May 09 $378 −$378 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 57¢ $289 1h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? AND Will Croatia win on 2026-0 BUY 14¢ $100 23h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) AND Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY 36¢ $198 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $230 2d
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score AND Japan vs. Sweden: Both Te BUY 33¢ $204 3d
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score AND Will Bosnia and Herzeg BUY 41¢ $254 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY 45¢ $356 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? A BUY 33¢ $204 4d
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score AND Spread: France (-2.5) BUY 35¢ $306 5d
Argentina vs. Austria: Austria O/U 0.5 BUY Over 52¢ $322 6d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 1.5 AND Will BUY 23¢ $153 7d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 AND Netherlands vs. Sweden: BUY 23¢ $153 8d
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 AND Will Türkiye wi BUY 27¢ $153 9d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 52¢ $375 29d
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 45¢ $229 41d
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 44¢ $12 41d
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 44¢ $634 41d
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 46¢ $421 42d
Olympique de Marseille vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 50¢ $457 42d
Athletic Club vs. RC Celta de Vigo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $139 42d
Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Valencia CF: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $433 42d
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 47¢ $430 42d
Levante UD vs. RCD Mallorca: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $520 42d
Elche CF vs. Getafe CF: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $379 42d
Athletic Club vs. RC Celta de Vigo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $5 42d
Athletic Club vs. RC Celta de Vigo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $228 42d
Athletic Club vs. RC Celta de Vigo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $32 42d
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 55¢ $502 42d
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 53¢ $441 42d
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-17? SELL Yes 84¢ $687 42d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $262.50 · official $262.50 (match) · 1670 history records