Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T09:38:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F4
0xf439…3b66
other · 5 markets active 1h ago
4.5score
+$4 +38%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$4 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage135d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit40%
Chart Positions 1 History 4 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
US government shutdown Saturday? No 46¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Yes 56¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 +$3 +88%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 +$4 +134%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 71% +$7
politics 19% −$2
tech 10% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 99¢ $3 7h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 92¢ $3 8h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 20h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $3 24h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 84¢ $3 29h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $3 43h
US government shutdown Saturday? BUY No 46¢ $2 134d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +40.7% +27.3% 67% 67% +65.0%
≤30d 3 +40.7% +27.3% 67% 67% +65.0%
≤90d 3 +40.7% +27.3% 67% 67% +65.0%
all 4 +5.5% -4.5% 50% 50% +29.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.5% 50% +29.6%
10% -13.7% 50% +17.2%
15% -22.0% 50% +5.9%
20% -29.7% 50% -4.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.97 · official $0.97 (match) · 9 history records