Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T20:11:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F4
0xf438…9559
sports · 101 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$50,768 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$50,651 · open −$117
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$140,182
Realized−$50,651
Unrealized−$117
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses44 / 35
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$9,703
Open positions22
Markets (closed)79 / 101
History coverage28d
Avg bet$9,885
Trades / day119.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%
Chart Positions 22 History 79 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$220,355
7 days−$180,648
14 days−$141,321
30 days−$50,651
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Josh Hokit 79¢ 78¢ $63,697 $63,403 −$294 (-0%)
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card) Steve Garcia 43¢ 42¢ $22,205 $22,117 −$88 (-0%)
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Ciryl Gane 50¢ 50¢ $17,500 $17,675 +$175 (+1%)
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 54¢ 52¢ $13,500 $12,875 −$625 (-5%)
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 44¢ 44¢ $10,675 $10,796 +$121 (+1%)
O/U 1.5 Rounds Over 51¢ 52¢ $5,100 $5,150 +$50 (+1%)
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Over 17¢ 18¢ $2,773 $3,018 +$245 (+9%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 45¢ 46¢ $1,303 $1,332 +$29 (+2%)
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Over 24¢ 28¢ $1,114 $1,276 +$162 (+15%)
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 5.5 Corners Over 47¢ 48¢ $674 $689 +$15 (+2%)
O/U 1.5 Rounds Over 47¢ 48¢ $390 $403 +$12 (+3%)
O/U 2.5 Rounds Over 32¢ 34¢ $355 $377 +$22 (+6%)
Fight to Go the Distance? Yes 14¢ 16¢ $320 $355 +$34 (+11%)
O/U 1.5 Rounds Over 55¢ 56¢ $193 $198 +$5 (+3%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Over 25¢ 29¢ $159 $185 +$25 (+16%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Over 8¢ 8¢ $118 $118 +$0 (+0%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Over 12¢ 10¢ $91 $76 −$15 (-17%)
O/U 2.5 Rounds Over 61¢ 63¢ $51 $52 +$2 (+3%)
Fight to Go the Distance? Yes 19¢ 22¢ $37 $42 +$5 (+13%)
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Over 72¢ 78¢ $22 $23 +$2 (+8%)
Fight to Go the Distance? Yes 35¢ 36¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+3%)
Fight to Go the Distance? Yes 32¢ 37¢ $4 $4 +$1 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 13 $3,417 +$4,011 +117%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 13 $10,305 +$12,595 +122%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 13 $168 +$481 +286%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 13 $1 +$3 +300%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 13 $154 +$107 +69%
Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals Jun 13 $3,607 +$1,341 +37%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $2,800 +$2,200 +79%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $14,000 +$6,000 +43%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $20,562 +$23,045 +112%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $368 +$104 +28%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $2,993 +$6,075 +203%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $1,160 −$1,160 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $3,200 −$3,200 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $10,027 −$10,027 -100%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Brian Gutiérrez: 1+ goals Jun 12 $70 −$70 -100%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 12 $246 −$246 -100%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 12 $518 −$518 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $1,060 −$1,060 -100%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 12 $1,043 −$1,043 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $1,284 −$1,284 -100%
Julián Quiñones: 1+ goals Jun 12 $3,321 −$3,321 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-06? Jun 12 $498 −$498 -100%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 12 $3,430 −$3,430 -100%
Phoenix Mercury vs. PortlandFire Jun 12 $5,700 −$5,700 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $5,000 −$5,000 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $4,300 −$4,300 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? Jun 12 $500 −$500 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 12 $6,429 −$6,429 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 12 $11,396 −$11,396 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Priscila Cachoeira vs. Chelsea Chandler (Women's Bant Jun 12 $19,928 −$15,178 -76%
UFC Fight Night: Loma Lookboonmee vs. Jaqueline Amorim (Women's Straww Jun 12 $18,808 −$18,808 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 12 $10,000 −$10,000 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Joanderson Brito vs. Jordan Leavitt (Featherweight, P Jun 12 $22,223 −$22,223 -100%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-22? Jun 12 $20,175 −$20,175 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5 Jun 12 $30,000 −$30,000 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims) Jun 12 $55,135 −$55,135 -100%
Will Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21? Jun 12 $10,080 −$10,080 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5 Jun 12 $9,800 −$9,800 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $9,200 −$9,200 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 12 $8,000 −$8,000 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 12 $7,851 −$7,851 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Marcus McGhee vs. John Yannis (Bantamweight, Prelims) Jun 12 $6,600 −$6,600 -100%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5) Jun 12 $9,600 −$9,600 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gaimin Gladiators vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $4,800 −$4,800 -100%
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $7,800 +$200 +3%
Patrik Schick: 2+ Goals Jun 12 $12 +$5 +43%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $11,460 +$10,002 +87%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $16 +$8 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 92% −$33,281
other 6% −$6,987
world 1% −$10,500
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 13.5 Total Corners BUY Over 8¢ $58 4m
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 13.5 Total Corners BUY Over 8¢ $62 4m
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Over 12¢ $94 4m
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Steve Garcia 42¢ $14 12m
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 45¢ $19 16m
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 27m
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Over 32¢ $10 29m
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Over 32¢ $11 35m
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 45¢ $875 36m
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 78¢ $106 39m
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 78¢ $53 42m
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 49m
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 78¢ $78 58m
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 24¢ $24 1h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 44¢ $1 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Steve Garcia 42¢ $14 1h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 24¢ $24 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 78¢ $71 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Steve Garcia 42¢ $1 1h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 24¢ $24 1h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 44¢ $3 1h
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Over 61¢ $36 1h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 24¢ $24 1h
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 78¢ $11 1h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 24¢ $24 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Steve Garcia 42¢ $4 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 78¢ $16 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Steve Garcia 42¢ $1 1h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 24¢ $24 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 -11.6% -20.0% 44% 43% -47.1%
≤30d 79 +3.0% -6.8% 56% 53% -14.9%
≤90d 79 +3.0% -6.8% 56% 53% -14.9%
all 79 +3.0% -6.8% 56% 53% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover119.9 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.8% 53% -14.9%
10% -15.7% 49% -23.0%
15% ← realistic here -23.9% 44% -30.5%
20% -31.3% 33% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $140,181.54 · official $140,181.58 (match) · 3500 history records