Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:31:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
F4 0xf438…de5d crypto 1529 markets active 1h ago coverage 250d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 250d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,896 (-3%) realized −$4,896 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate46%710W / 819L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day11.4pace
Fees−$93est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$75
7 days−$95
14 days−$274
30 days−$630
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% −$4,654
other 8% −$1,429
sports 6% +$1,462
world 0% −$306
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -12.3% -20.6% 43% 43% -24.0%
≤30d 52 -6.9% -15.8% 42% 42% -22.5%
≤90d 259 -3.0% -12.2% 43% 42% -7.5%
all 1529 -2.9% -12.1% 46% 45% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 45% -12.0%
10% -20.5% 44% -20.5%
15% -28.2% 42% -28.1%
20% -35.3% 39% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$99 vs −$92 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

250d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4,896
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses710 / 819
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$93
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1529 / 1529
History coverage250d ⚠
Avg bet$116
Trades / day11.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1529 Trades
no open positions (35 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 21 $56 −$52 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5PM ET Jun 21 $135 +$19 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 21 $63 +$68 +107%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $113 −$109 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1AM ET Jun 16 $114 +$91 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET Jun 15 $114 −$111 -98%
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? Jun 15 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12PM ET Jun 10 $149 −$144 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2AM ET Jun 09 $81 −$78 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 08 $46 +$44 +94%
Will Georgia win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $161 −$158 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2PM ET Jun 02 $104 −$100 -96%
Romania leading at halftime? Jun 02 $132 −$129 -98%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 02 $102 −$97 -94%
Croatia leading at halftime? Jun 02 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 02 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 02 $59 −$56 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4AM ET Jun 02 $38 −$36 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 02 $26 +$25 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1AM ET Jun 02 $57 −$55 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2PM ET Jun 01 $84 +$68 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12PM ET Jun 01 $21 +$64 +303%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5AM ET Jun 01 $115 −$111 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1PM ET May 30 $110 +$112 +102%
Will Dinamo 1948 vs. FCSB end in a draw? May 29 $94 +$243 +259%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3PM ET May 29 $155 +$129 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3AM ET May 29 $50 −$48 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3PM ET May 28 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1PM ET May 28 $96 +$83 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12PM ET May 28 $124 +$122 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10AM ET May 28 $119 +$102 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11AM ET May 28 $91 −$88 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9AM ET May 28 $102 −$71 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8AM ET May 28 $89 +$90 +101%
Exact Score: Crystal Palace FC 1 - 1 Rayo Vallecano de Madrid? May 27 $102 −$99 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET May 27 $42 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET May 27 $22 +$20 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET May 27 $11 +$11 +95%
Exact Score: Crystal Palace FC 0 - 0 Rayo Vallecano de Madrid? May 27 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET May 27 $41 +$34 +83%
Exact Score: Crystal Palace FC 0 - 1 Rayo Vallecano de Madrid? May 27 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET May 27 $56 +$36 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET May 27 $52 +$60 +114%
Spread: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (-1.5) May 27 $57 −$55 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6AM ET May 27 $108 −$108 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4AM ET May 27 $115 +$84 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3AM ET May 27 $115 −$111 -97%
Will Saint-Etienne win on 2026-05-26? May 26 $126 −$124 -98%
Saint-Etienne leading at halftime? May 26 $123 −$120 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9PM ET May 25 $123 +$110 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 3¢ $4 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $56 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $154 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $93 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $131 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $63 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 27¢ $113 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $205 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $114 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $114 6d
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 6d
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $149 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $6 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $75 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $46 13d
Will Georgia win on 2026-06-02? BUY Yes 32¢ $161 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $104 19d
Romania leading at halftime? BUY Yes 24¢ $6 19d
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) SELL Croatia 1¢ $6 19d
Romania leading at halftime? BUY Yes 25¢ $126 19d
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia 17¢ $102 19d
Croatia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $3 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $40 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $59 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records