Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:26:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F4 0xf437…c0e9 sports 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 382d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,249 (-36%) realized −$1,231 · open −$18
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%9W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$113per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$50est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$65
30 days−$267
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$1,281
crypto 1% +$5
politics 0% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-30.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 5 -73.5% -76.0% 20% 20% -88.4%
≤90d 27 -15.3% -23.4% 33% 33% -42.5%
all 30 -23.3% -30.6% 30% 30% -42.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.6% 30% -42.8%
10% -37.3% 23% -48.2%
15% -43.3% 23% -53.2%
20% -48.9% 23% -57.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -43% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$105 vs −$106 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

382d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$1,231
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses9 / 21
Est. fees paid−$50
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage382d
Avg bet$113
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Türkiye 24¢ 10¢ $32 $14 −$18 (-56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 06 $65 −$56 -85%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoff May 25 $45 −$44 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 25 $25 +$5 +18%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 24 $166 −$162 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Game Handicap: KT (-1.5) vs Kiwoom DRX (+1.5) May 14 $497 −$489 -98%
Game Handicap: KT (-1.5) vs BNK FEARX (+1.5) May 04 $49 −$48 -98%
LoL: GIANTX vs Shifters (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Apr 13 $105 −$102 -98%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qual Apr 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Barcelona Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Jack Draper Apr 13 $337 −$337 -100%
LoL: Fnatic vs SK Gaming (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Apr 13 $33 +$71 +213%
BMW Open: Emilio Nava vs Ben Shelton Apr 13 $250 −$5 -2%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs JD Gaming (+1.5) Apr 13 $200 +$194 +97%
LoL: HANJIN BRION Challengers vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - LCK Ch Apr 13 $170 +$22 +13%
Busan: Yu-Hsiou Hsu vs Adam Walton Apr 13 $208 −$28 -14%
Game Handicap: KRX.C (-1.5) vs Gen.G Global Academy (+1.5) Apr 13 $100 +$109 +109%
Nuggets vs. Spurs Apr 13 $70 +$234 +335%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 13 $201 −$201 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Top Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qu Apr 11 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Q Apr 11 $94 −$94 -100%
Celtics vs. Hawks Apr 11 $187 −$187 -100%
Naples: Daniel Altmaier vs Hamad Medjedovic Mar 30 $139 −$139 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer (Middleweight, Main Car Mar 29 $148 −$148 -100%
Bulls vs. Grizzlies Mar 29 $100 +$177 +178%
Pistons vs. Timberwolves Mar 29 $66 +$80 +122%
LoL: LNG Esports vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Mar 28 $50 +$52 +104%
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 03 $0 $0 -90%
Will Lee Jun-seok win between 11% and 14% of the vote in the South Kor Jun 03 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 03 $4 −$4 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 24¢ $33 1h
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY JD Gaming 20¢ $10 13d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL HANJIN BRION $10 13d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY HANJIN BRION 20¢ $65 13d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoff BUY Dplus KIA 26¢ $45 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $30 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $25 26d
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY HANJIN BRION 15¢ $166 26d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Dplus KIA 15¢ $1 35d
Game Handicap: KT (-1.5) vs Kiwoom DRX (+1.5) BUY KT Rolster 48¢ $497 36d
Game Handicap: KT (-1.5) vs BNK FEARX (+1.5) BUY KT Rolster 44¢ $49 46d
LoL: GIANTX vs Shifters (BO3) - LEC Regular Season BUY Shifters 22¢ $105 67d
LoL: Fnatic vs SK Gaming (BO3) - LEC Regular Season SELL SK Gaming 99¢ $105 67d
LoL: Fnatic vs SK Gaming (BO3) - LEC Regular Season BUY SK Gaming 31¢ $33 67d
Barcelona Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Jack Draper BUY Jack Draper 38¢ $101 67d
Barcelona Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Jack Draper BUY Jack Draper 55¢ $66 67d
Barcelona Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Jack Draper BUY Jack Draper 56¢ $76 67d
BMW Open: Emilio Nava vs Ben Shelton SELL Ben Shelton 73¢ $245 67d
BMW Open: Emilio Nava vs Ben Shelton BUY Ben Shelton 74¢ $250 67d
Barcelona Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Jack Draper BUY Jack Draper 51¢ $94 67d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qual BUY Bilibili Gaming 43¢ $50 67d
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs JD Gaming (+1.5) SELL JD Gaming 100¢ $394 67d
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs JD Gaming (+1.5) BUY JD Gaming 50¢ $200 67d
LoL: HANJIN BRION Challengers vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - LCK Ch SELL KT Rolster Challengers 87¢ $192 67d
LoL: HANJIN BRION Challengers vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - LCK Ch BUY KT Rolster Challengers 77¢ $170 67d
Busan: Yu-Hsiou Hsu vs Adam Walton SELL Adam Walton 79¢ $180 67d
Busan: Yu-Hsiou Hsu vs Adam Walton BUY Adam Walton 91¢ $208 67d
Game Handicap: KRX.C (-1.5) vs Gen.G Global Academy (+1.5) SELL Gen.G Global Academy 100¢ $208 67d
Game Handicap: KRX.C (-1.5) vs Gen.G Global Academy (+1.5) BUY Gen.G Global Academy 47¢ $100 67d
Nuggets vs. Spurs SELL Nuggets 98¢ $303 68d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.01 · official $14.01 (match) · 59 history records