Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T19:38:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
F4 0xf437…fec9 sports 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL −$17 (-1%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate71%5W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$365per market
Trades / day41.0pace
Fees−$39est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +25.1% +13.2% 71% 29% -7.4%
≤30d 7 +25.1% +13.2% 71% 29% -7.4%
≤90d 7 +25.1% +13.2% 71% 29% -7.4%
all 7 +25.1% +13.2% 71% 29% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +13.2% 29% -7.4%
10% ← realistic here +2.3% 29% -16.3%
15% -7.5% 29% -24.3%
20% -16.6% 14% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 95% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$72 vs −$151 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses5 / 2
Est. fees paid−$39
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$365
Trades / day41.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wimbledon ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 29 $319 +$135 +42%
Wimbledon WTA: Solana Sierra vs Anna Bondar Jun 29 $321 −$8 -2%
Wimbledon ATP: Adam Walton vs Dino Prizmic Jun 29 $119 +$211 +178%
Wimbledon ATP: Michael Zheng vs Cameron Norrie Jun 29 $641 −$294 -46%
Wimbledon ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Felix Gill Jun 29 $400 +$6 +1%
Wimbledon ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Learner Tien Jun 29 $395 +$8 +2%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Jun 29 $362 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Rinky Hijikata SELL Jesper de Jong 40¢ $339 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Rinky Hijikata SELL Jesper de Jong 43¢ $7 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Rinky Hijikata SELL Jesper de Jong 43¢ $108 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Rinky Hijikata BUY Jesper de Jong 28¢ $147 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Rinky Hijikata BUY Jesper de Jong 28¢ $1 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Rinky Hijikata BUY Jesper de Jong 28¢ $3 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Rinky Hijikata BUY Jesper de Jong 28¢ $2 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Rinky Hijikata BUY Jesper de Jong 28¢ $28 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Rinky Hijikata BUY Jesper de Jong 28¢ $23 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Rinky Hijikata BUY Jesper de Jong 28¢ $93 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Rinky Hijikata BUY Jesper de Jong 27¢ $1 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Rinky Hijikata BUY Jesper de Jong 27¢ $20 1h
Wimbledon WTA: Solana Sierra vs Anna Bondar SELL Solana Sierra 59¢ $313 2h
Wimbledon WTA: Solana Sierra vs Anna Bondar BUY Solana Sierra 59¢ $321 2h
Wimbledon ATP: Adam Walton vs Dino Prizmic SELL Dino Prizmic 100¢ $245 2h
Wimbledon ATP: Adam Walton vs Dino Prizmic SELL Dino Prizmic 100¢ $85 2h
Wimbledon ATP: Adam Walton vs Dino Prizmic BUY Dino Prizmic 36¢ $119 4h
Wimbledon ATP: Michael Zheng vs Cameron Norrie SELL Michael Zheng 26¢ $109 4h
Wimbledon ATP: Michael Zheng vs Cameron Norrie BUY Michael Zheng 54¢ $235 5h
Wimbledon ATP: Michael Zheng vs Cameron Norrie SELL Cameron Norrie 47¢ $229 5h
Wimbledon ATP: Michael Zheng vs Cameron Norrie SELL Cameron Norrie 37¢ $2 5h
Wimbledon ATP: Michael Zheng vs Cameron Norrie SELL Cameron Norrie 37¢ $5 5h
Wimbledon ATP: Michael Zheng vs Cameron Norrie BUY Cameron Norrie 78¢ $405 7h
Wimbledon ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Felix Gill SELL Rafael Jodar 100¢ $405 7h
Wimbledon ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Felix Gill BUY Rafael Jodar 98¢ $400 7h
Wimbledon ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Learner Tien SELL Learner Tien 97¢ $261 8h
Wimbledon ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Learner Tien SELL Learner Tien 97¢ $97 8h
Wimbledon ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Learner Tien SELL Learner Tien 97¢ $12 8h
Wimbledon ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Learner Tien SELL Learner Tien 97¢ $2 8h
Wimbledon ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Learner Tien SELL Learner Tien 97¢ $8 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 41 history records