Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:47:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
F4 0xf436…8cf6 world 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$96 (+2%) realized +$125 · open −$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate44%15W / 19L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$141per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$673
14 days−$688
30 days−$414
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 83% −$72
other 5% +$114
sports 4% +$41
crypto 4% −$19
politics 3% $0
tech 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -65.4% -68.7% 0% 0% -41.9%
≤30d 11 +54.3% +39.6% 36% 36% -13.8%
≤90d 22 +36.9% +23.9% 50% 45% +5.8%
all 34 +20.6% +9.1% 44% 32% +1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.1% 32% +1.5%
10% -1.3% 29% -8.2%
15% -10.9% 26% -17.1%
20% -19.6% 24% -25.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +38% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$60 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$125
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses15 / 19
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage110d
Avg bet$141
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? Down 51¢ 32¢ $79 $50 −$29 (-37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $1,180 −$359 -30%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $63 −$63 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $400 −$156 -39%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $420 −$95 -23%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 9? Jun 08 $8 +$5 +67%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $6 +$18 +295%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $33 −$33 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 9? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $26 −$13 -51%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $7 +$49 +660%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $270 +$238 +88%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 17 $155 +$45 +29%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 02 $130 +$70 +54%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Apr 28 $217 +$114 +52%
Will XRP reach $1.60 in April? Apr 26 $20 −$11 -55%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $164 +$36 +22%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 16 $36 −$18 -50%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? Apr 15 $44 −$22 -50%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 13 $139 +$81 +58%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 08 $58 +$142 +245%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 01 $37 +$3 +7%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 25 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Mar Mar 12 $1 $0 -54%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Mar 10 $282 −$42 -15%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Mar 09 $166 $0 +0%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 09 $92 $0 +0%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Mar 09 $64 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 08 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 08 $272 +$124 +46%
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Mar 07 $15 +$1 +4%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 05 $140 $0 +0%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Mar 04 $158 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? Mar 03 $56 +$1 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 01 $173 +$6 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? BUY Down 51¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? BUY Down 51¢ $61 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $4 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 6¢ $13 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 12¢ $50 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 5¢ $20 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 7¢ $56 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $200 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 38¢ $152 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $196 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 20¢ $100 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $513 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $252 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 25¢ $125 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 25¢ $225 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $195 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 56¢ $16 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 56¢ $18 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 56¢ $190 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 61¢ $122 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 61¢ $219 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 9? SELL Yes 12¢ $12 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 8? SELL Yes 40¢ $13 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 8? SELL Yes 40¢ $12 10d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? BUY No 4¢ $3 11d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? BUY No 20¢ $2 12d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? BUY No 28¢ $15 12d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? BUY No 28¢ $1 12d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? BUY No 28¢ $0 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.13 · official $50.13 (match) · 164 history records