Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T09:33:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F4 0xf42e…a2b5 crypto 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,982 (-19%) realized −$1,982 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate52%25W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$221per market
Trades / day22.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2,599
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -13.5% -21.7% 52% 46% -34.2%
≤30d 48 -13.5% -21.7% 52% 46% -34.2%
≤90d 48 -13.5% -21.7% 52% 46% -34.2%
all 48 -13.5% -21.7% 52% 46% -34.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.7% 46% -34.2%
10% ← realistic here -29.2% 44% -40.5%
15% -36.1% 31% -46.3%
20% -42.3% 17% -51.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$77 vs −$197 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,982
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses25 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)48 / 48
History coverage5d
Avg bet$221
Trades / day22.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 48 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 25 $325 −$313 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 25 $418 −$75 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 25 $272 +$141 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 25 $133 −$125 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 25 $464 +$68 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 25 $207 +$50 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 25 $104 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 25 $106 +$47 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 25 $191 +$73 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 25 $412 +$101 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 25 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 25 $208 −$85 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 25 $208 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 25 $48 +$23 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 25 $104 +$80 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 25 $105 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 25 $214 +$80 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 25 $103 +$25 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 25 $104 +$72 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 25 $110 −$110 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 25 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 25 $103 +$67 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 25 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 25 $103 +$38 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 25 $1,524 −$1,500 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 25 $825 −$800 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 25 $456 −$442 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 25 $365 −$100 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 25 $408 −$20 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 25 $132 −$124 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 25 $191 +$141 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 25 $207 +$190 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 25 $162 −$156 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 25 $192 +$70 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 25 $255 −$55 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 25 $419 +$133 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 25 $82 −$78 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 25 $218 +$70 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 25 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 25 $91 +$36 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 25 $206 +$54 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 25 $104 +$103 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 25 $105 +$261 +248%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 25 $135 −$125 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 20 $12 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 20 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 20 $16 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 20 $15 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $325 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 39¢ $311 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $418 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $414 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $272 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $112 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $234 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $205 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Down 62¢ $297 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $259 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $257 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $207 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Down 31¢ $152 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $191 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $300 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $205 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $213 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $207 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $123 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $208 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $213 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $208 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Down 14¢ $71 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $48 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $184 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 125 history records