Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T18:08:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
F4 0xf42d…0996 other 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$29 (+9%) realized +$30 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -55% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -59% what you keep after slip
Net edge-59%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%3W / 6L
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$5
14 days+$42
30 days+$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% +$47
sports 8% −$19
crypto 2% −$1
tech 2% +$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-59.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 9 -54.7% -59.0% 33% 33% -0.6%
≤90d 9 -54.7% -59.0% 33% 33% -0.6%
all 9 -54.7% -59.0% 33% 33% -0.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -59.0% 33% -0.6%
10% -63.0% 22% -10.1%
15% -66.5% 11% -18.8%
20% -69.8% 11% -26.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 92% · top 2 97% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -55% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$4 · ×4.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.11 per $1 lost it wins $2.11
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized+$30
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses3 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)9 / 16
History coverage15d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 68¢ 66¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 78¢ 88¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Will Marta Kostyuk be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? No 97¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 66¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 56¢ 44¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-22%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $256 +$51 +20%
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Marta Kostyuk win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 04 $5 +$3 +59%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 02 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 02 $5 −$5 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka Jun 01 $5 +$1 +29%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 01 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.99 · official $39.99 (match) · 22 history records