Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:48:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
F4 0xf42d…7ad3 politics 18 markets active 0h ago coverage 245d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$2 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%1W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$135per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$445now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 88% −$4
world 8% $0
other 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -5.7% -14.7% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 13 -5.7% -14.7% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 13 -5.7% -14.7% 0% 0% -9.8%
all 15 -4.8% -13.9% 7% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 0% -9.7%
10% -22.1% 0% -18.4%
15% -29.7% 0% -26.3%
20% -36.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

245d coverage
Net worth$445
Realized−$2
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses1 / 14
Open positions3
Markets (closed)15 / 18
History coverage245d
Avg bet$135
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $219 $219 −$0 (-0%)
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $209 $209 −$0 (-0%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 94¢ 90¢ $19 $18 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $189 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $199 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $180 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $1 $0 -19%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $199 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $159 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $159 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $208 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $2 $0 -21%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $2 $0 -16%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $2 $0 -17%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $179 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $209 $0 -0%
Interstellar object confirmed aliens? Dec 31 $19 $0 +2%
Will CTBC Flying Oyster win LoL Worlds 2025? Oct 21 $49 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $209 2m
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $188 23m
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $219 2h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $199 3h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $189 3h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $179 4h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $199 5h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 6h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $199 7h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 11h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $199 13h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $159 14h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $159 17h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $179 17h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $159 18h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $208 19h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $208 23h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $159 25h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 26h
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 26h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 28h
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 28h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 30h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 32h
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 32h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $179 33h
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 33h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $179 34h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $228 38h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $208 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $445.42 · official $445.42 (match) · 39 history records