Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:21:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F4
0xf42b…c039
other · 5 markets active 2h ago
0.5score
−$44 -40%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$37 · open −$7
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Net worth$23
Realized−$37
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)3 / 5
History coverage37d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%
Chart Positions 2 History 3 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days+$21
14 days+$21
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $15 $14 −$1 (-10%)
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ assists Yes 19¢ 12¢ $15 $9 −$6 (-38%)
Michael Olise: Anytime Goalscorer Yes 40¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Desire Doue: Anytime Goalscorer Yes 26¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $20 +$21 +105%
Michael Olise: Anytime Goalscorer May 06 $18 −$18 -98%
Desire Doue: Anytime Goalscorer May 06 $41 −$40 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 82% −$65
sports 18% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-38.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +105.1% +85.6% 100% 100% +85.6%
≤30d 1 +105.1% +85.6% 100% 100% +85.6%
≤90d 3 -31.6% -38.1% 33% 33% -51.9%
all 3 -31.6% -38.1% 33% 33% -51.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.1% 33% -51.9%
10% -44.1% 33% -56.5%
15% -49.5% 33% -60.7%
20% -54.4% 33% -64.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.77 · official $22.78 (match) · 6 history records