Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:39:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F4 0xf42a…4b3c sports 297 markets active 0h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$7,146 (+6%) realized +$7,729 · open −$583
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate57%168W / 125L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$387per market
Trades / day36.5pace
Fees−$740est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$786now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,163
7 days+$2,020
14 days+$4,822
30 days+$6,980
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$5,914
other 1% +$390
world 0% +$96
crypto 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 91 +15.4% +4.4% 56% 37% -5.7%
≤30d 293 -1.3% -10.7% 57% 44% -4.0%
≤90d 293 -1.3% -10.7% 57% 44% -4.0%
all 293 -1.3% -10.7% 57% 44% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.7% 44% -4.0%
10% ← realistic here -19.2% 28% -13.2%
15% -27.0% 16% -21.6%
20% -34.2% 11% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$107 vs −$88 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.63 per $1 lost it wins $1.63
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$786
Realized+$7,729
Unrealized−$583
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses168 / 125
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$740
Open positions4
Markets (closed)293 / 297
History coverage28d
Avg bet$387
Trades / day36.5
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 293 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner T1 Academy 60¢ 100¢ $447 $750 +$302 (+68%)
Will Top Esports win the LPL 2026 season? Yes 19¢ $77 $35 −$42 (-55%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner KT Rolster Challengers $24 $0 −$24 (-98%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Dplus KIA Challengers 67¢ $502 $0 −$502 (-100%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Nongshim Esports Academy $15 $0 −$15 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 104 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $1,066 −$48 -4%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $2,583 +$79 +3%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $91 +$9 +10%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $435 −$30 -7%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $706 −$23 -3%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $82 +$28 +34%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $4,332 +$377 +9%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -97%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 175.5 Jun 17 $66 +$7 +11%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 180.5 Jun 17 $46 −$41 -88%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Jun 16 $1,592 +$152 +10%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 16 $1,103 +$95 +9%
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry Jun 16 $23 −$18 -78%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $15 +$37 +238%
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Jun 16 $28 +$2 +8%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 16 $14 +$6 +42%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $28 −$28 -100%
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 168.5 Jun 16 $636 +$114 +18%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 178.5 Jun 16 $942 +$554 +59%
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 16 $11 −$8 -73%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 176.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $63 −$63 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $9 +$90 +979%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $57 −$57 -100%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $49 −$35 -72%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 15 $76 +$24 +32%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $870 −$870 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $776 +$282 +36%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $3,566 +$310 +9%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $33 +$15 +47%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 14 $31 −$2 -8%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $23 +$27 +119%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $23 +$16 +68%
Spread: Spurs (-25.5) Jun 14 $5,813 +$375 +6%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 171.5 Jun 14 $31 +$13 +41%
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $67 +$23 +35%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $264 $0 -0%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $61 −$61 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $557 +$43 +8%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $1,755 +$495 +28%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 13 $219 +$1 +1%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $850 +$150 +18%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 156.5 Jun 13 $545 −$511 -94%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 158.5 Jun 13 $398 +$42 +10%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Jun 13 $84 +$16 +18%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $427 −$427 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy $15 21m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy $0 21m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 60¢ $191 58m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 60¢ $109 58m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 59¢ $148 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 Academy 89¢ $1 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 Academy 89¢ $300 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 Academy 89¢ $30 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 Academy 89¢ $2,331 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 80¢ $201 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 86¢ $3 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 86¢ $189 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 86¢ $614 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 86¢ $54 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 87¢ $1,522 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers $25 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 67¢ $502 3h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 92¢ $929 5h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers $5 5h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers $3 5h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 50¢ $137 5h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 81¢ $405 6h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 87¢ $435 7h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $2 7h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $22 7h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $57 7h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $10 7h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 69¢ $684 7h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $706 7h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 31¢ $6 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $785.91 · official $785.95 (match) · 1204 history records