Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:54:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
F4 0xf429…2517 other 201 markets active 5d ago coverage 55d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$109 (+22%) realized +$109 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate18%37W / 164L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day11.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$2
14 days−$12
30 days+$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% +$42
weather 9% +$70
crypto 6% −$13
sports 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)+1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -2.6% -11.9% 20% 20% -1.7%
≤30d 66 +16.2% +5.2% 24% 24% +8.3%
≤90d 201 +12.1% +1.4% 18% 18% -0.9%
all 201 +12.1% +1.4% 18% 18% -0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.4% 18% -0.9%
10% -8.3% 18% -10.4%
15% -17.2% 17% -19.0%
20% -25.3% 16% -27.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$2 · ×6.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$109
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses37 / 164
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)201 / 201
History coverage55d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day11.2
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 201 Trades
no open positions (127 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $3 +$10 +338%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $3 +$11 +344%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $3 −$2 -64%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $3 −$2 -78%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $3 −$2 -66%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 11 $3 −$2 -64%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $3 +$3 +91%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $37 −$6 -16%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $3 −$1 -25%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $3 +$9 +286%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $3 −$2 -68%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 08 $3 −$2 -75%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $3 −$1 -48%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $3 −$2 -58%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $3 −$1 -25%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $3 −$2 -65%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $2 +$8 +425%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 05 $3 −$2 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 04 $8 −$3 -39%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $2 −$1 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 04 $3 −$3 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $9 −$3 -36%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $5 −$2 -33%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $4 −$2 -45%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $2 +$16 +866%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $4 −$3 -67%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $4 +$18 +450%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $2 −$1 -63%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $2 −$1 -81%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 01 $2 −$1 -28%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 30 $4 +$3 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 30 $3 +$4 +117%
Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in May 2026? May 30 $1 +$6 +566%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $2 +$6 +315%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $10 −$4 -40%
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in May 2026? May 28 $1 $0 -26%
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in May 2026? May 28 $1 $0 -50%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 27 $2 −$1 -47%
Roland Garros WTA: Anhelina Kalinina vs Diane Parry May 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 960-999 tweets in May 2026? May 26 $2 −$1 -28%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $2 +$7 +317%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 25 $2 $0 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 5d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 5d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 5d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 5d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 5d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $3 5d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 5d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 5d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 5d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 5d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 5d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 6d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 7d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 7d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 7d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 7d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 7d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 7d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 7d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 7d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 7d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 7d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 7d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 7d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 7d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 7d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 7d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 7d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 7d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 626 history records