Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:48:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F4 0xf429…969e sports 1396 markets active 1h ago coverage 161d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$9,525 (-4%) realized −$11,585 · open −$203
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate40%546W / 833L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$190per market
Trades / day15.7pace
Fees−$2,712est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$734now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$756
7 days+$1,013
14 days+$1,348
30 days+$2,922
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% −$12,965
other 19% +$1,656
crypto 0% −$480
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 +7.0% -3.1% 47% 44% +1.0%
≤30d 222 +14.8% +3.8% 50% 49% -2.9%
≤90d 973 -10.0% -18.6% 40% 39% -13.4%
all 1379 -9.2% -17.8% 40% 38% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.8% 38% -13.2%
10% -25.7% 36% -21.5%
15% -32.9% 34% -29.1%
20% -39.5% 31% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$182 vs −$133 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$734
Realized−$11,585
Unrealized−$203
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses546 / 833
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$2,712
Open positions7
Markets (closed)1379 / 1396
History coverage161d
Avg bet$190
Trades / day15.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 1379 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $557 $562 +$5 (+1%)
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Golden Knights 34¢ 32¢ $100 $93 −$7 (-7%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $25 $29 +$4 (+16%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+2%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-7%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-95%)
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Philadelphia Phillies 37¢ 0¢ $1,517 $0 −$1,517 (-100%)
Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2026-05-24? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $119 $0 −$119 (-100%)
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals Chicago Cubs 45¢ 0¢ $250 $0 −$250 (-100%)
Spread: Celtics (-11.5) Celtics 47¢ 0¢ $550 $0 −$550 (-100%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies Philadelphia Phillies 11¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Chennai Super Kings Chennai Super Kings 2¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Magic vs. Pistons Magic 16¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies Arizona Diamondbacks 53¢ 0¢ $96 $0 −$96 (-100%)
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? No 54¢ 0¢ $194 $0 −$194 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Flavio Cobolli 27¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Spread: Nuggets (-11.5) Timberwolves 47¢ 0¢ $273 $0 −$273 (-100%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners Arizona Diamondbacks 43¢ 0¢ $264 $0 −$264 (-100%)
Canadiens vs. Lightning Lightning 59¢ 0¢ $400 $0 −$400 (-100%)
Celtics vs. 76ers 76ers 22¢ 0¢ $146 $0 −$146 (-100%)
Lakers vs. Rockets Rockets 34¢ 0¢ $120 $0 −$120 (-100%)
Magic vs. Pistons Magic 29¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-04-21? No 48¢ 0¢ $98 $0 −$98 (-100%)
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 Over 47¢ 0¢ $125 $0 −$125 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $143 −$134 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $342 −$336 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $152 −$99 -65%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$13 -12%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $102 +$123 +121%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $102 +$214 +210%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $124 −$40 -32%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $304 +$23 +8%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $194 +$84 +44%
Scotland leading at halftime? Jun 14 $51 +$58 +114%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $153 +$264 +172%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 14 $102 +$176 +173%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -97%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $152 −$150 -98%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $152 −$150 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $76 +$102 +134%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $139 +$987 +708%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $181 −$177 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $51 +$81 +158%
Spread: Qatar (-1.5) Jun 13 $26 −$25 -97%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $41 −$40 -97%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $122 +$133 +109%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 13 $77 −$75 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $188 +$97 +52%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $77 −$75 -98%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 12 $125 −$122 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $136 −$136 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $133 −$133 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $357 +$138 +39%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 12 $152 +$121 +79%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 12 $203 +$154 +76%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $409 −$403 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $127 −$125 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $234 +$305 +130%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 11 $361 +$332 +92%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 Jun 11 $123 −$121 -99%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $102 +$252 +247%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 10.5 Jun 10 $260 +$48 +19%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $180 +$45 +25%
Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $254 −$250 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik Jun 10 $202 +$87 +43%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 Jun 09 $152 −$150 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 09 $152 −$150 -98%
UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $364 +$309 +85%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 34¢ $102 32m
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 46m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $565 49m
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 2¢ $9 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 29¢ $143 2h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $204 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $342 4h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 18¢ $54 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 22¢ $90 4h
Netherlands leading at halftime? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 5h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $152 5h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 5h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 99¢ $225 6h
Spread: Germany (-5.5) SELL Germany 95¢ $316 6h
Spread: Germany (-5.5) BUY Germany 30¢ $102 7h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 44¢ $102 7h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) SELL Curaçao 20¢ $85 7h
Spread: Germany (-4.5) SELL Curaçao 67¢ $327 7h
Spread: Germany (-4.5) BUY Curaçao 61¢ $304 8h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 25¢ $22 8h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 29¢ $102 8h
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 22h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Australia 69¢ $194 22h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $152 22h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 46¢ $152 24h
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) BUY Knicks 36¢ $102 24h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $733.54 · official $733.54 (match) · 2857 history records