Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T04:54:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
F4 0xf423…9d26 other 7 markets active 3h ago coverage 13d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$366 (-48%) realized −$366 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$108per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$138
7 days−$94
14 days−$369
30 days−$369
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% −$319
sports 7% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-41.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -24.2% -31.4% 50% 50% -25.2%
≤30d 7 -35.1% -41.2% 43% 43% -55.1%
≤90d 7 -35.1% -41.2% 43% 43% -55.1%
all 7 -35.1% -41.2% 43% 43% -55.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.2% 43% -55.1%
10% -46.9% 43% -59.4%
15% -52.0% 43% -63.3%
20% -56.7% 29% -66.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -54% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -54% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$121 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$366
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage13d
Avg bet$108
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $130 −$88 -68%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $50 +$24 +48%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $76 +$41 +55%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $73 −$73 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $98 +$51 +52%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $279 −$275 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $51 2h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 36¢ $40 2h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 56¢ $130 3h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $73 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $76 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $98 6d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $279 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 11 history records