Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T04:18:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
F4 0xf423…ea4b other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$27 (+1%) realized +$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate17%1W / 5L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$316per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 13d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$26
world 34% −$3
politics 16% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.6% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 6 +1.1% -8.5% 17% 0% -8.5%
≤90d 6 +1.1% -8.5% 17% 0% -8.5%
all 6 +1.1% -8.5% 17% 0% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 0% -8.5%
10% -17.3% 0% -17.3%
15% -25.3% 0% -25.3%
20% -32.6% 0% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$3 · ×12.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.03 per $1 lost it wins $3.03
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses1 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage13d
Avg bet$316
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by December 31, 2026? Jun 27 $318 −$2 -0%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? Jun 27 $319 −$2 -0%
Maduro guilty of all counts? Jun 26 $320 $0 +0%
Will US annex any territory in 2026? Jun 26 $316 −$4 -1%
Game 1: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor? Jun 14 $309 +$31 +10%
Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026? Jun 14 $312 −$2 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $317 44m
Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $318 59m
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $317 1h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $319 1h
Maduro guilty of all counts? SELL No 90¢ $320 21h
Maduro guilty of all counts? BUY No 90¢ $320 22h
Will US annex any territory in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $311 22h
Will US annex any territory in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $316 22h
Game 1: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor? BUY No 91¢ $309 12d
Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $310 12d
Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $312 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 12 history records