Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:28:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F4 0xf422…baa9 sports 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$488 (+11%) realized +$486 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate56%10W / 8L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$226per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$980now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$327
7 days+$494
14 days+$494
30 days+$494
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 48% +$2
other 33% +$281
sports 19% +$213
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-31.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -23.8% -31.1% 56% 50% +11.1%
≤30d 18 -23.8% -31.1% 56% 50% +11.1%
≤90d 18 -23.8% -31.1% 56% 50% +11.1%
all 18 -23.8% -31.1% 56% 50% +11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.1% 50% +11.1%
10% -37.7% 44% +0.5%
15% -43.7% 22% -9.2%
20% -49.2% 17% -18.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 36% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt +23% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -38% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$8 · ×6.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.42 per $1 lost it wins $8.42
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$980
Realized+$486
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses10 / 8
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)18 / 19
History coverage19d
Avg bet$226
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 89¢ 90¢ $979 $980 +$2 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $61 +$5 +8%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $454 +$110 +24%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $444 +$10 +2%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $258 +$56 +22%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $297 +$91 +31%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $101 +$80 +79%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $101 +$53 +52%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $120 +$60 +50%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $118 +$32 +27%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $195 +$62 +32%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 BUY Over 18¢ $5 1h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 19¢ $10 1h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) SELL Brazil 69¢ $64 1h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 53¢ $51 2h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes $5 2h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 80¢ $454 4h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 98¢ $444 6h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 88¢ $87 24h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 82¢ $161 24h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 26h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 76¢ $297 33h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes $6 47h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 55¢ $101 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $10 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $120 3d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes $10 3d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $21 3d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 78¢ $118 4d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 88¢ $119 4d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 89¢ $1,104 4d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $257 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 75¢ $106 4d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 74¢ $89 4d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 88¢ $1,042 4d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 80¢ $963 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $980.36 · official $980.36 (match) · 36 history records