Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:27:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F4 0xf422…078f finance 27 markets active 2h ago coverage 38d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$54 (-22%) realized −$44 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate10%1W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 38d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 58% −$82
world 18% −$15
sports 17% +$50
other 3% $0
crypto 3% −$4
politics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -1.2% -10.6% 11% 11% +33.8%
≤30d 9 -1.2% -10.6% 11% 11% +33.8%
≤90d 10 -11.0% -19.5% 10% 10% -37.0%
all 10 -11.0% -19.5% 10% 10% -37.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.5% 10% -37.0%
10% -27.2% 10% -43.0%
15% -34.2% 10% -48.5%
20% -40.7% 10% -53.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$11 · ×5.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$44
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses1 / 9
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions17
Markets (closed)10 / 27
History coverage38d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 Over 29¢ 23¢ $25 $20 −$5 (-21%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-14%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by June 30? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-9%)
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-12%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+10%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-10%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-17%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-28%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 15? Up 5¢ 6¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-16%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-31%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $14 +$56 +388%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 14 $28 −$14 -48%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 14 $6 $0 -4%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15? Jun 14 $1 $0 -33%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? Jun 14 $3 −$1 -45%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 15? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -75%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 15? Jun 14 $5 −$3 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -40%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 Week of May 4 2026? May 07 $77 −$74 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 1h
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 BUY Over 29¢ $26 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 1h
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 5¢ $1 1h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 1h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 1h
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 1h
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 2h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 2h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 2h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? BUY Yes 6¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $3 5h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 BUY Over 20¢ $14 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $14 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 11h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $11 11h
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 11h
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 11h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL Yes 3¢ $6 11h
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 11h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 11h
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.21 · official $56.25 (match) · 50 history records