Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:55:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
F4 0xf422…636d crypto 25 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$165 (-29%) realized −$168 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate74%17W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day16.5pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 57% −$1
politics 41% $0
other 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +1.9% -7.8% 74% 35% -10.7%
≤30d 23 +1.9% -7.8% 74% 35% -10.7%
≤90d 23 +1.9% -7.8% 74% 35% -10.7%
all 23 +1.9% -7.8% 74% 35% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 35% -10.7%
10% -16.6% 13% -19.2%
15% -24.7% 4% -27.0%
20% -32.1% 4% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$168
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses17 / 6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)23 / 25
History coverage6d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day16.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Up 0¢ 55¢ $0 $3 +$3 (+0%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$10 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $25 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$3 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +23%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $6 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $6 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $15 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $6 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 26m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.38 · official $3.12 (match) · 130 history records