Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T21:09:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F4
0xf421…cff4
sports · 162 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$52,674 -14%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$54,985 · open +$2,311
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$6,311
Realized−$54,985
Unrealized+$2,311
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses70 / 90
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$3,037
Open positions2
Markets (closed)160 / 162
History coverage39d
Avg bet$2,333
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%
Chart Positions 2 History 160 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11,302
7 days−$22,963
14 days−$15,406
30 days−$34,540
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 45¢ 100¢ $2,000 $4,442 +$2,442 (+122%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Under 53¢ 50¢ $2,000 $1,868 −$132 (-7%)
Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC win on 2026-05-30? No 52¢ 0¢ $1,000 $0 −$1,000 (-100%)
1. FC Köln vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 3.5 Under 53¢ 0¢ $2,000 $0 −$2,000 (-100%)
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? Yes 52¢ 0¢ $3,500 $0 −$3,500 (-100%)
Will Yunnan Yukun FC win on 2026-05-06? Yes 47¢ 0¢ $70 $0 −$70 (-100%)
Will CS Independiente Rivadavia win on 2026-05-21? No 53¢ 0¢ $2,000 $0 −$2,000 (-100%)
Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 214.5 Over 49¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Over 47¢ 0¢ $2,000 $0 −$2,000 (-100%)
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) Cavaliers 49¢ 0¢ $2,505 $0 −$2,505 (-100%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? No 53¢ 0¢ $8,650 $0 −$8,650 (-100%)
Spread: Thunder (-5.5) Spurs 52¢ 0¢ $3,000 $0 −$3,000 (-100%)
Will St. Louis City SC win on 2026-05-23? No 44¢ 0¢ $2,000 $0 −$2,000 (-100%)
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Timberwolves 49¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) Cavaliers 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) Lakers 49¢ 0¢ $7,400 $0 −$7,400 (-100%)
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-05-16? Yes 49¢ 0¢ $1,848 $0 −$1,848 (-100%)
Will Club Nacional de Football win on 2026-05-20? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $1,560 $0 −$1,560 (-100%)
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Timberwolves 48¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Chengdu Rongcheng FC win on 2026-05-15? No 48¢ 0¢ $2,000 $0 −$2,000 (-100%)
Will IK Sirius win on 2026-05-30? No 52¢ 0¢ $1,500 $0 −$1,500 (-100%)
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Thunder 50¢ 0¢ $7,800 $0 −$7,800 (-100%)
Will Minnesota United FC win on 2026-05-23? Yes 44¢ 0¢ $2,031 $0 −$2,031 (-100%)
Torino FC vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: O/U 2.5 Under 51¢ 0¢ $610 $0 −$610 (-100%)
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-08? No 43¢ 0¢ $1,250 $0 −$1,250 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Audax CS Italiano vs. CD La Serena: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +109%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $3,245 −$3,200 -99%
Will AC Goianiense win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $183 −$180 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $8,772 −$8,650 -99%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $812 +$727 +90%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 10 $14,404 −$14,200 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 10 $1,320 +$1,333 +101%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1,012 +$695 +69%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 Jun 09 $4,059 +$3,784 +93%
Will Vila Nova FC win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $406 −$400 -99%
Fukushima United FC vs. FC Ryūkyū: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $508 +$492 +97%
Will Zweigen Kanazawa win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $3,246 −$3,200 -99%
Will Tochigi SC win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $2,029 −$166 -8%
Will Tōkyō Verdy win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $7,718 −$7,597 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 05 $2,032 −$2,000 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 05 $2,538 −$2,500 -98%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $3,896 −$3,830 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 Jun 04 $2,032 +$2,315 +114%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 04 $4,465 +$4,163 +93%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 04 $3,660 +$4,521 +124%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Vanraure Hachinohe FC win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $1,813 +$1,906 +105%
O'Higgins FC vs. Everton de Viña del Mar: O/U 2.5 Jun 01 $1,218 +$1,231 +101%
Will Club Alianza Lima win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $1,533 +$1,526 +100%
CR Vasco da Gama vs. CA Mineiro: O/U 2.5 Jun 01 $1,278 +$1,145 +90%
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $1,898 +$1,917 +101%
Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $3,276 +$3,180 +97%
Will CD Universidad Católica win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $6,995 −$6,900 -99%
Will Hammarby IF win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $3,066 +$2,377 +78%
CD Limache vs. CD Coquimbo Unido: O/U 2.5 May 31 $3,462 −$3,407 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $2,032 −$2,000 -98%
Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $4,483 +$5,768 +129%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5 May 31 $5,076 +$5,128 +101%
Spread: CR Flamengo (-1.5) May 30 $584 +$616 +106%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $5,066 +$3,863 +76%
Will IK Sirius win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1,522 −$1,500 -99%
Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1,014 −$1,000 -99%
Will Beijing Guoan FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $669 −$660 -99%
Will AC Monza win on 2026-05-29? May 30 $3,940 +$3,824 +97%
Will Vegalta Sendai win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $2,458 −$2,420 -98%
Will Fredrikstad FK win on 2026-05-29? May 30 $986 −$970 -98%
AC Monza vs. US Catanzaro 1929: O/U 2.5 May 29 $1,522 +$1,478 +97%
Will KFUM-Kameratene Oslo win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $1 −$1 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 May 29 $6,764 +$6,542 +97%
Will Pharco FC win on 2026-05-28? May 28 $532 +$439 +82%
Spread: SE Palmeiras (-1.5) May 28 $1,221 −$1,200 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) May 28 $7,917 −$7,800 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 28 $1 −$1 -98%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-05-27? May 28 $2,922 −$748 -26%
Spread: CA River Plate (-2.5) May 28 $507 +$454 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 54% −$39,133
other 46% −$12,292
world 0% −$1,250
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 53¢ $2,028 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 45¢ $2,033 4h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $3,245 21h
Will AC Goianiense win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $183 23h
Audax CS Italiano vs. CD La Serena: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $1 23h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 53¢ $659 33h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 53¢ $8,113 33h
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 52¢ $812 2d
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) BUY Knicks 52¢ $1,626 2d
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) BUY Knicks 52¢ $7,098 2d
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) BUY Knicks 52¢ $609 2d
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) BUY Knicks 52¢ $5,072 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Nigeria 49¢ $1,320 3d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-09? BUY No 59¢ $1,012 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 BUY Over 51¢ $4,059 5d
Will Vila Nova FC win on 2026-06-08? BUY No 52¢ $406 5d
Will Zweigen Kanazawa win on 2026-06-07? BUY No 52¢ $2,840 6d
Will Zweigen Kanazawa win on 2026-06-07? BUY No 50¢ $406 6d
Will Tochigi SC win on 2026-06-07? SELL No 48¢ $1,863 6d
Fukushima United FC vs. FC Ryūkyū: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $508 6d
Will Tochigi SC win on 2026-06-07? BUY No 51¢ $507 6d
Will Tochigi SC win on 2026-06-07? BUY No 51¢ $710 6d
Will Tochigi SC win on 2026-06-07? BUY No 51¢ $812 6d
Will Tōkyō Verdy win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 47¢ $4,992 7d
Will Tōkyō Verdy win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 47¢ $2,726 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 BUY Over 47¢ $2,032 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 BUY Over 50¢ $2,538 8d
Will China PR win on 2026-06-05? BUY No 43¢ $2,034 8d
Will China PR win on 2026-06-05? BUY No 42¢ $916 8d
Will China PR win on 2026-06-05? BUY No 43¢ $458 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -3.8% -13.0% 46% 46% -62.0%
≤30d 130 -5.4% -14.4% 46% 46% -19.4%
≤90d 160 -10.5% -19.0% 44% 44% -22.9%
all 160 -10.5% -19.0% 44% 44% -22.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.0% 44% -22.9%
10% ← realistic here -26.7% 44% -30.3%
15% -33.8% 44% -37.1%
20% -40.3% 44% -43.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,310.71 · official $6,310.71 (match) · 288 history records