Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:10:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F4 0xf421…efce weather 39 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (204 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$42 (+2%) realized +$239 · open −$197
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate33%8W / 16L
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day204.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% −$93
other 1% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (204 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-28.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -21.1% -28.6% 33% 21% -6.1%
≤30d 24 -21.1% -28.6% 33% 21% -6.1%
≤90d 24 -21.1% -28.6% 33% 21% -6.1%
all 24 -21.1% -28.6% 33% 21% -6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover204.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.6% 21% -6.1%
10% ← realistic here -35.4% 21% -15.1%
15% -41.7% 21% -23.3%
20% -47.4% 21% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -63% → late +20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$28 · ×2.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized+$239
Unrealized−$197
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses8 / 16
Open positions21
Markets (closed)24 / 39
History coverage1d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day204.0
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? Yes 24¢ 28¢ $27 $31 +$4 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? Yes 20¢ $87 $30 −$57 (-66%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? Yes $25 $25 −$1 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? Yes $12 $7 −$5 (-43%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 17? Yes $5 $4 −$1 (-22%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on June 16? Yes $5 $1 −$5 (-82%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on June 16? Yes $10 $0 −$10 (-96%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 17? Yes $21 $0 −$20 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 16? No $13 $0 −$13 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on June 16? Yes 19¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June 16? Yes $9 $0 −$9 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 16? Yes $5 $0 −$5 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on June 16? Yes 13¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 69°F or below on June 16? Yes $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 16? Yes $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on June 16? Yes $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on June 16? Yes $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on June 16? Yes $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 16? Yes $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 88°F or higher on June 16? Yes $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 16? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 17? Jun 16 $27 +$18 +67%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 16 $331 +$22 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 16? Jun 16 $7 +$27 +397%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 16 $245 −$170 -69%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 16? Jun 16 $308 +$13 +4%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 16 $14 +$13 +92%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 16 $26 +$19 +72%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $241 +$10 +4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 16 $99 −$86 -87%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 65°F or below on June Jun 16 $5 −$4 -73%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $34 −$22 -63%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $8 −$6 -76%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $12 −$12 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $23 −$23 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $310 +$408 +132%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $110 −$12 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $21 −$18 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $80 −$42 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $14 −$14 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes $9 0m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes $7 1m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 24¢ $29 25m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 17? SELL Yes $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 24¢ $26 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? BUY Yes $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes $27 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 32¢ $45 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes $13 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 17? SELL Yes 30¢ $46 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $57 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju SELL Yes 100¢ $304 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $34 3h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes $4 3h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY Yes 11¢ $4 3h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $22 3h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju SELL Yes $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 97¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 97¢ $7 4h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 97¢ $5 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.62 · official $85.21 · 207 history records