Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:15:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F4 0xf420…a2ba other 261 markets active 0h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$86 (-0%) realized −$86 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%11W / 250L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$206per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$16
14 days−$26
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$39
sports 24% −$27
politics 9% −$6
culture 8% −$8
economics 6% −$11
crypto 5% −$3
world 3% −$2
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 65 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 178 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 261 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$86
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses11 / 250
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)261 / 261
History coverage136d
Avg bet$206
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 261 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $212 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 18 $614 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $142 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $53 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $108 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $67 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $291 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $730 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $102 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $450 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 16 $400 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $168 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $317 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $480 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $677 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $552 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $136 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $949 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $190 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 14 $564 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $55 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $154 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $297 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $798 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $526 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $200 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $426 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 12 $125 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $165 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $358 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $541 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $262 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $441 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $401 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $229 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $226 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $576 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $59 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $759 −$2 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $622 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 06 $154 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $233 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $274 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $123 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $146 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $375 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 04 $133 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $382 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $291 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $53 10m
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $53 1h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $53 5h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $53 7h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $11 9h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $11 10h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $53 16h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $53 18h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $53 19h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $53 21h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $53 22h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $53 23h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $53 25h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $53 26h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $53 28h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $53 30h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $53 37h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $53 38h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $53 43h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $53 45h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $53 46h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $54 2d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $54 2d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $54 2d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 99¢ $54 2d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $54 2d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $54 2d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $54 2d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $54 2d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $54 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1406 history records