Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:50:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F4 0xf41d…16d9 world 57 markets active 0h ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$35 (+3%) realized +$29 · open +$6
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate93%42W / 3L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$350now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$13
14 days+$17
30 days+$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 65% +$15
other 18% +$8
politics 16% +$11
sports 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +4.7% -5.2% 100% 12% -5.9%
≤30d 16 +4.2% -5.7% 94% 12% -6.2%
≤90d 45 +3.2% -6.6% 93% 7% -6.3%
all 45 +3.2% -6.6% 93% 7% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.6% 7% -6.3%
10% -15.6% 0% -15.3%
15% -23.7% 0% -23.4%
20% -31.2% 0% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×20.14 per $1 lost it wins $20.14
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$350
Realized+$29
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses42 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions12
Markets (closed)45 / 57
History coverage75d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 97¢ $41 $41 −$0 (-0%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 98¢ $39 $40 +$1 (+2%)
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? Yes 90¢ 93¢ $37 $38 +$1 (+3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 92¢ 92¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-1%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Yes 82¢ 86¢ $34 $35 +$1 (+4%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 88¢ 86¢ $36 $35 −$1 (-3%)
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $20 $21 +$0 (+1%)
Will Nithya Raman win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election? No 97¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? No 83¢ 100¢ $17 $20 +$3 (+19%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 83¢ 81¢ $17 $16 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 84¢ 99¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $42 $0 +0%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 18 $39 +$1 +2%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 18 $41 +$1 +2%
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? Jun 18 $78 +$4 +5%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 17 $57 +$3 +5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 16 $20 +$1 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 15 $17 +$3 +19%
Will Spencer Pratt win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Jun 09 $17 +$3 +14%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 08 $19 +$1 +7%
Will another candidate win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles May Jun 08 $20 $0 +1%
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 03 $20 $0 +1%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $18 $0 -1%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $61 +$1 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 22 $34 +$1 +2%
Will Brad Raffensperger win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican prima May 22 $20 +$1 +3%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 20 $41 +$1 +2%
Will Keisha Lance Bottoms win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic pri May 20 $19 +$2 +8%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 16 $37 +$4 +10%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 13 $5 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 13 $20 $0 +1%
Will David Farley win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Au May 10 $4 +$1 +16%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2026 Ohio Governor Republican primary ele May 07 $5 $0 +2%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026? May 01 $5 $0 +2%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 01 $5 $0 +3%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? May 01 $5 $0 +2%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? May 01 $9 +$1 +10%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 01 $15 $0 +2%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 25 $5 $0 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $10 $0 +1%
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, Apr 23 $5 $0 +6%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 21 $5 $0 +9%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? Apr 16 $5 $0 +3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 16 $5 $0 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? Apr 12 $10 −$1 -13%
US x Iran meeting by April 14, 2026? Apr 11 $5 $0 +0%
US x Iran meeting by April 12, 2026? Apr 11 $5 $0 +0%
US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 11 $5 $0 +1%
US x Iran meeting by April 13, 2026? Apr 11 $5 $0 +1%
US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026? Apr 11 $5 $0 +1%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 14? Apr 11 $5 $0 +1%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 12? Apr 11 $5 $0 +0%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 13? Apr 11 $5 $0 +1%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 15? Apr 11 $5 $0 +0%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 11 $10 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $41 27m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 92¢ $38 1h
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $37 8h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $34 8h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 98¢ $40 47h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $42 2d
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 95¢ $39 2d
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 96¢ $39 2d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 98¢ $41 2d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $60 2d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 96¢ $39 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $9 2d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $20 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $9 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $19 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $18 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $20 3d
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $20 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 99¢ $20 6d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 97¢ $20 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $17 8d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $20 8d
Will Spencer Pratt win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral SELL No 98¢ $20 10d
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $20 11d
Will another candidate win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles May SELL No 100¢ $20 11d
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $20 16d
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $19 16d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $18 17d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $20 22d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $20 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $349.75 · official $349.75 (match) · 176 history records