Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:46:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F4 0xf41d…9a73 world 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 468d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$10 (+1%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate53%17W / 15L
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 64% +$12
other 19% −$5
finance 6% +$2
politics 5% $0
crypto 4% −$1
tech 1% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.7% -10.2% 17% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 16 +0.9% -8.7% 31% 0% -7.6%
≤90d 16 +0.9% -8.7% 31% 0% -7.6%
all 32 -2.5% -11.8% 53% 0% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 0% -8.4%
10% -20.2% 0% -17.1%
15% -27.9% 0% -25.1%
20% -35.0% 0% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.54 per $1 lost it wins $2.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

468d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses17 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage468d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $39 $0 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 19 $11 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $4 $0 -4%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $55 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $8 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $56 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 27 $4 $0 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $135 +$7 +5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $38 +$3 +8%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $39 +$2 +6%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $42 +$2 +5%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $15 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 23 $42 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 22 $41 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 21 $57 −$2 -3%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July? Dec 13 $1 $0 +3%
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el Jun 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will Anders Arborelius be the next pope? May 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $100k in April? May 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Quebec in the next C Apr 16 $11 $0 +1%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? Apr 15 $11 $0 +0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 14 $11 $0 -0%
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? Apr 12 $11 $0 -1%
Will egg prices be between $5.50 and $5.75 in March? Apr 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50k in April? Apr 07 $11 $0 -4%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 25 $11 $0 +1%
Will Hamas enter Israel by Friday? Mar 23 $11 $0 +1%
Will Southampton win on 2025-03-08? Mar 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Atletico Madrid win La Liga? Mar 10 $2 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $39 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $39 2h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 4h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 4h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 4h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 4h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $11 7h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 17h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 17h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 19h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 19h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $55 21h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $55 23h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 28h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 28h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $8 31h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $56 33h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $56 35h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 71¢ $36 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 71¢ $15 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 69¢ $19 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 69¢ $23 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 69¢ $7 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 71¢ $34 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 71¢ $6 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 66¢ $18 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 66¢ $19 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 35¢ $18 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 94 history records