Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:23:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F4 0xf41a…b386 sports 67 markets active 2h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$54,226 (+11%) realized +$54,226 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +37% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate46%31W / 36L
Whale WR47%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7,664per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$2,226est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,164
7 days+$15,207
14 days+$37,018
30 days+$64,921
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$46,922
other 1% +$1,171
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+23.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +98.5% +79.6% 58% 58% +32.2%
≤30d 30 +72.5% +56.1% 53% 53% +60.2%
≤90d 52 +19.8% +8.4% 38% 38% -24.2%
all 67 +36.7% +23.7% 46% 45% +0.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +23.7% 45% +0.5%
10% ← realistic here +11.9% 45% -9.1%
15% +1.1% 43% -17.9%
20% -8.8% 40% -26.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +37% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 47% (≥$9,175) neutral
Persistence
early +21% → late +52% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7,522 vs −$5,141 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$54,226
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses31 / 36
Whale WR (big bets)47%
Est. fees paid−$2,226
Open positions0
Markets (closed)67 / 67
History coverage100d
Avg bet$7,664
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 67 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $510 +$1,101 +216%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 19 $2,541 +$2,996 +118%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $955 −$933 -98%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $1,977 −$1,939 -98%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $1,527 −$1,500 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $260 +$142 +54%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $1,188 +$4,429 +373%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $4,648 +$4,678 +101%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $1,399 −$1,367 -98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 14 $101 +$77 +76%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $6,113 +$9,785 +160%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $1,447 +$1,419 +98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $6,619 −$5,583 -84%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 14 $3,007 −$302 -10%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $51 +$361 +704%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $129 +$761 +589%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $142 −$138 -97%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $103 −$100 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,433 +$1,320 +92%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $1,109 +$1,416 +128%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 12 $1,804 −$1,767 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $1,116 −$75 -7%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $3,245 −$149 -5%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $8,386 +$14,528 +173%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 10 $3,658 −$3,598 -98%
Atlanta Dream vs. Chicago Sky Jun 10 $340 −$333 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $10,466 +$12,788 +122%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $8,672 −$1,000 -12%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $5,256 +$8,671 +165%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $14,977 +$19,232 +128%
Lakers vs. Mavericks Apr 06 $9,381 −$9,175 -98%
Timberwolves vs. 76ers Apr 03 $8,023 −$7,877 -98%
Lakers vs. Pistons Mar 24 $84,338 −$33,220 -39%
Raptors vs. Suns Mar 23 $26,026 −$26,026 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Celtics Mar 22 $3,333 −$245 -7%
Bucks vs. Suns Mar 22 $1,314 +$3,048 +232%
Thunder vs. Wizards Mar 22 $1,983 −$1,983 -100%
Jazz vs. Kings Mar 22 $13,158 −$13,158 -100%
76ers vs. Jazz Mar 22 $11,456 +$8,608 +75%
Clippers vs. Mavericks Mar 22 $6,973 +$8,233 +118%
Bulls vs. Lakers Mar 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Mavericks Mar 22 $250 −$250 -100%
Nuggets vs. Lakers Mar 22 $7,266 −$4,562 -63%
Suns vs. Timberwolves Mar 22 $19,992 −$19,992 -100%
Magic vs. Heat Mar 22 $3,200 −$1,970 -62%
Kings vs. Clippers Mar 22 $14,022 −$14,022 -100%
Warriors vs. Knicks Mar 22 $5,000 −$5,000 -100%
Pacers vs. Bucks Mar 22 $760 −$760 -100%
Clippers vs. Pelicans Mar 22 $12,495 −$12,495 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Thunder Mar 22 $5,754 −$5,754 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $1,611 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 31¢ $510 7h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London SELL Leviatán Esports 100¢ $5,537 7h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 45¢ $2,541 9h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $614 46h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $341 46h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 35¢ $1,977 3d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Team Vitality 40¢ $1,527 4d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo SELL EDward Gaming 100¢ $402 4d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 64¢ $260 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 99¢ $5,617 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $547 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $404 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $237 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Ciryl Gane 99¢ $9,325 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 48¢ $1,952 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 49¢ $2,695 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 22¢ $1,399 5d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 56¢ $101 5d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff SELL FUT Esports 99¢ $15,898 5d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London SELL Leviatán Esports 99¢ $2,866 5d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 50¢ $304 5d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff BUY FUT Esports 37¢ $6,113 5d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 49¢ $1,142 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 40¢ $2,036 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 45¢ $2,706 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 49¢ $1,976 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 48¢ $1,031 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $3,616 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 35¢ $590 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 343 history records