Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:19:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F4 0xf418…95a3 crypto 199 markets active 17h ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d only
✗ bot/MM pace (3301 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,851 (+6%) realized +$1,851 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate46%103W / 119L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$161per market
Trades / day3301.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$224
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (3301 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 222 -5.8% -14.8% 46% 8% -9.5%
≤30d 222 -5.8% -14.8% 46% 8% -9.5%
≤90d 222 -5.8% -14.8% 46% 8% -9.5%
all 222 -5.8% -14.8% 46% 8% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3301.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.8% 8% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -23.0% 2% -18.2%
15% -30.4% 1% -26.1%
20% -37.2% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
16.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$7 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,851
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses103 / 119
Open positions0
Markets (closed)222 / 199
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$161
Trades / day3301.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 222 Trades
no open positions (23 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$21 -633%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$5 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $236 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $188 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $326 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $266 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $449 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $167 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $356 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $230 +$10 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $477 −$2 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $484 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $242 −$2 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $530 −$15 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $456 −$6 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $507 −$17 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $197 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $364 −$4 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $491 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $405 −$5 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $565 −$5 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $195 −$5 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $411 −$11 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $199 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $345 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $308 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $339 −$9 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $437 −$7 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $14 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $7 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $12 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $8 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $12 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $11 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $9 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $9 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $8 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $13 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $8 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $12 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $7 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $13 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $7 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $12 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $7 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $13 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $8 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $11 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $19 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $18 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $2 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records