Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:10:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F4 0xf418…168c crypto 250 markets active 3d ago coverage 13d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (53 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$47 (-2%) realized −$47 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate60%149W / 101L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day52.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$65
14 days−$110
30 days−$111
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$109
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (53 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 157 -7.2% -16.0% 56% 29% -12.9%
≤30d 250 -6.8% -15.7% 60% 36% -13.1%
≤90d 250 -6.8% -15.7% 60% 36% -13.1%
all 250 -6.8% -15.7% 60% 36% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover52.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.7% 36% -13.1%
10% ← realistic here -23.8% 4% -21.4%
15% -31.1% 0% -29.0%
20% -37.9% 0% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$47
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses149 / 101
Open positions0
Markets (closed)250 / 250
History coverage13d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day52.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 250 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$3 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 13 $11 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$5 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$2 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 13 $9 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 12 $11 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 12 $11 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $9 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$3 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $9 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$2 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 12 $9 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$2 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 12 $11 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$3 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 11 $9 −$5 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$2 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 11 $15 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 11 $9 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 11 $6 −$2 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 11 $6 −$2 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 11 $21 −$5 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 11 $9 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 11 $9 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$2 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 11 $20 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 11 $11 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $9 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 11 $16 −$2 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $15 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 11 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 11 $17 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 11 $6 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $6 −$2 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 11 $6 −$2 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 11 $15 +$1 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Down 31¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $12 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Up 29¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $8 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Up 17¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Up 18¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Up 14¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Down 87¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $9 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Down 54¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $12 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 725 history records