Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:19:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
F4 0xf418…ab79 sports 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$157 (-6%) realized −$162 · open +$5
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate73%8W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$146per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$273now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +2.9% -6.9% 73% 55% -11.9%
≤30d 11 +2.9% -6.9% 73% 55% -11.9%
≤90d 11 +2.9% -6.9% 73% 55% -11.9%
all 11 +2.9% -6.9% 73% 55% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 55% -11.9%
10% -15.8% 45% -20.3%
15% -23.9% 45% -28.0%
20% -31.4% 0% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 41% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$138 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$273
Realized−$162
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses8 / 3
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 18
History coverage3d
Avg bet$146
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Jordan vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score in First Half No 98¢ 100¢ $268 $273 +$5 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $243 +$25 +10%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $101 +$48 +48%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 AND Panama vs. England: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $98 −$46 -47%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 2.5 AND New Zealand vs. Belgium: 1st H Jun 27 $100 +$39 +38%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $95 +$5 +5%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 0.5 AND Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $300 −$205 -68%
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? AND Will Norway vs. France end in Jun 26 $400 +$87 +22%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $164 −$164 -100%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $150 +$56 +37%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 AND Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $142 +$65 +46%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 AND Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $100 +$42 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jordan vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 98¢ $268 34m
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 1.5 BUY Under 91¢ $243 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $150 2h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $101 3h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 BUY 44¢ $52 4h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 AND Panama vs. England: O/U 1.5 SELL 43¢ $52 4h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 AND Panama vs. England: O/U 1.5 BUY 79¢ $98 6h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 5.5 AND Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY 51¢ $100 22h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 AND Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY 28¢ $39 22h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 2.5 AND New Zealand vs. Belgium: 1st H SELL 97¢ $139 22h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 2.5 AND New Zealand vs. Belgium: 1st H BUY 69¢ $100 24h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 95¢ $95 25h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 0.5 AND Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 0.5 SELL 28¢ $95 25h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Uruguay O/U 0.5 AND Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Ca BUY 42¢ $86 28h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 AND Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 BUY 54¢ $100 28h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Uruguay O/U 0.5 AND Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Ca BUY 41¢ $1 28h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 0.5 AND Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 0.5 BUY 85¢ $300 29h
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? AND Will Norway vs. France end in BUY 89¢ $5 31h
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? AND Will Norway vs. France end in BUY 90¢ $198 31h
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 2.5 AND Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a BUY 72¢ $98 31h
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? AND Will Norway vs. France end in BUY 75¢ $196 32h
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? AND Will Norway vs. France end in BUY 75¢ $1 32h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $164 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 BUY 72¢ $150 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 AND Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 1.5 BUY 69¢ $0 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 AND Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 1.5 BUY 68¢ $3 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 AND Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 1.5 BUY 68¢ $139 2d
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 AND Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 BUY 70¢ $100 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $273.03 · official $273.03 (match) · 35 history records