Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T08:00:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F4
0xf417…b1be
weather · 774 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$258 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$258 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$435
Realized−$258
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses541 / 186
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions47
Markets (closed)727 / 774
History coverage19d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day98.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 47 History 727 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$888
7 days−$361
14 days−$91
30 days−$258
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 13? No 94¢ 99¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 13? No 94¢ 98¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 13? No 95¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 13? No 94¢ 98¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? No 94¢ 98¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 13? No 96¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 13? No 95¢ 98¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 13? No 95¢ 98¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 13? No 93¢ 95¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? No 96¢ 98¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 13? No 97¢ 98¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 13? No 96¢ 98¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 13? No 96¢ 97¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 13? No 94¢ 95¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 13? No 94¢ 95¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 13? No 96¢ 97¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 13? No 93¢ 93¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 13? No 94¢ 94¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 13? No 95¢ 95¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 13? No 98¢ 98¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on June 13? No 96¢ 96¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 13? No 95¢ 95¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 13? No 94¢ 94¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 13? No 94¢ 93¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 13? No 97¢ 96¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 −$3 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 −$9 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $19 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $10 −$1 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 −$1 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 −$9 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 −$5 -53%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 12? Jun 13 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 13 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 13 $119 −$119 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 13 $154 −$154 -100%
Libema Open, Qualification: Britt Du Pree vs Joanna Garland Jun 13 $85 −$85 -100%
Will Bahrain vs. Syria end in a draw? Jun 13 $135 −$62 -46%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Algeria? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 on May 29? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 32% +$15
crypto 26% +$296
sports 24% −$231
other 13% −$313
politics 3% −$11
world 2% +$1
tech 1% −$14
economics 0% −$2
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 13? SELL No 65¢ $7 12m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June BUY No 95¢ $10 18m
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 13? BUY No 95¢ $5 19m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $10 19m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 13? SELL No 99¢ $2 39m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $10 39m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 13? SELL No 99¢ $8 39m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 13? BUY No 94¢ $10 43m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $10 43m
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 13? SELL No 14¢ $1 50m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $10 59m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 13? SELL No 99¢ $11 59m
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 13? SELL No 99¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 13? SELL No 99¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 13? BUY No 95¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 94¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 13? SELL No 99¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 93¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 13? SELL No 99¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 13? BUY No 95¢ $6 1h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 13? BUY No 95¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 13? BUY No 93¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 13? SELL No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 94¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 362 -2.6% -11.8% 69% 27% -14.0%
≤30d 727 -2.4% -11.7% 74% 30% -11.3%
≤90d 727 -2.4% -11.7% 74% 30% -11.3%
all 727 -2.4% -11.7% 74% 30% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover98.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.7% 30% -11.3%
10% ← realistic here -20.1% 8% -19.8%
15% -27.8% 4% -27.5%
20% -34.9% 3% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $435.22 · official $433.23 (match) · 1988 history records