Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:35:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F4 0xf416…4e63 other 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$5 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate58%7W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% −$5
sports 8% +$2
crypto 4% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +4.7% -5.2% 58% 50% -12.0%
≤30d 12 +4.7% -5.2% 58% 50% -12.0%
≤90d 12 +4.7% -5.2% 58% 50% -12.0%
all 12 +4.7% -5.2% 58% 50% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.2% 50% -12.0%
10% -14.3% 50% -20.4%
15% -22.6% 42% -28.1%
20% -30.2% 17% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 57% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$9 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized+$5
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses7 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 13
History coverage6d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 40¢ 30¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$13 +64%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$3 +30%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $41 −$29 -71%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$6 -30%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$9 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$9 +46%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -60%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 $0 +2%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 +$4 +191%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $34 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $21 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 4h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $13 4h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 75¢ $10 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 23¢ $12 4h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 51¢ $14 18h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $41 18h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 20h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 34h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 38¢ $1 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $2 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 96¢ $2 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $6 3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.75 · official $14.75 (match) · 24 history records