Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T00:35:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F4
0xf412…3270
crypto · 94 markets active 1h ago
1.5score
−$1,231 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,148 · open −$83
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$491
Realized−$1,148
Unrealized−$83
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses36 / 56
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)92 / 94
History coverage273d
Avg bet$196
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 2 History 92 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,497
7 days−$1,529
14 days−$1,958
30 days−$795
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Down 57¢ 48¢ $525 $442 −$83 (-16%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Down 51¢ 52¢ $49 $49 +$1 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6PM ET Down 28¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on November 24? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Down 37¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Down 26¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11AM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Down 21¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on November 26? No 6¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Down 64¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Will the price of Solana be above $242 on September 13 at 4PM ET? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on November 26? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Up 14¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the government shutdown end November 14? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 13 $7,190 −$1,497 -21%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 09 $33 −$32 -98%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 05 $1,699 +$261 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $940 −$736 -78%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $302 −$240 -80%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $53 −$27 -52%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 04 $1,840 −$154 -8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 04 $66 +$17 +26%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June? Jun 04 $1,183 +$302 +26%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 03 $151 −$56 -37%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $1,047 +$156 +15%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May? Jun 01 $59 +$43 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6PM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET May 31 $16 +$14 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3PM ET May 30 $669 +$451 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2PM ET May 30 $309 −$300 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1PM ET May 30 $58 −$57 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12PM ET May 30 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 30? May 30 $364 +$669 +184%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 30 $16 +$14 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET May 30 $27 +$18 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET May 30 $15 −$15 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 30? May 30 $106 −$71 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5AM ET May 29 $10 +$6 +62%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 May 25-31? May 28 $179 +$180 +101%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 25-31? May 28 $68 +$88 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET May 27 $52 +$63 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10AM ET May 27 $26 +$45 +171%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11AM ET May 27 $41 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET May 27 $10 +$8 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8AM ET May 27 $26 +$38 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7AM ET May 27 $16 +$13 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 27 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET May 27 $21 +$27 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET May 27 $10 +$8 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7AM ET May 25 $21 +$9 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET May 25 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 25 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 25 $16 +$13 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 25 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 25 $10 +$5 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 25 $10 −$4 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 25 $21 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET May 25 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET May 25 $16 +$27 +171%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET May 25 $36 +$30 +83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$1,190
sports 0% −$33
other 0% −$4
politics 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $45 59m
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 9¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 9¢ $274 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $77 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $464 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 10¢ $30 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 10¢ $30 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 10¢ $30 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 10¢ $30 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 11¢ $430 2h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $33 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 27¢ $1,027 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 27¢ $0 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 27¢ $86 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 27¢ $998 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 27¢ $181 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 21¢ $185 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 35¢ $2,371 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 35¢ $364 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 35¢ $550 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 32¢ $1,521 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 36¢ $375 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 36¢ $359 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 36¢ $509 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 36¢ $344 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -60.4% -64.2% 0% 0% -28.7%
≤30d 55 +11.4% +0.8% 56% 55% -13.8%
≤90d 62 +6.8% -3.4% 53% 52% -13.9%
all 92 -10.8% -19.3% 39% 38% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.3% 38% -15.3%
10% -27.0% 36% -23.4%
15% -34.0% 34% -30.8%
20% -40.5% 33% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $491.23 · official $491.23 (match) · 359 history records