Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:54:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F4 0xf40f…c3bc finance 140 markets active 2h ago coverage 46d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 45d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (73 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$8,908 (-15%) realized −$8,908 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate22%30W / 109L
Whale WR27%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$414per market
Trades / day72.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 46d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 54% −$1,815
world 27% −$75
other 14% −$561
tech 3% +$54
crypto 1% −$22
politics 0% −$8
weather 0% −$32
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (73 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -10.0% -18.6% 12% 0% -12.2%
≤30d 103 -11.6% -20.0% 17% 2% -13.3%
≤90d 139 +6.5% -3.7% 22% 4% -13.4%
all 139 +6.5% -3.7% 22% 4% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover72.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.7% 4% -13.4%
10% ← realistic here -12.9% 4% -21.7%
15% -21.3% 4% -29.3%
20% -29.0% 4% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 27% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +24% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
13.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$28 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$8,908
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses30 / 109
Whale WR (big bets)27%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)139 / 140
History coverage46d ⚠
Avg bet$414
Trades / day72.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 139 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Panama (-1.5) Jun 18 $5 $0 +7%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $12 −$1 -11%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $562 −$224 -40%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? Jun 16 $46 −$4 -9%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 16 $114 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 16 $1,007 −$8 -1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $873 −$41 -5%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 15 $18 −$4 -21%
Will two SpaceX Starships dock together by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $31 −$6 -20%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $404 −$254 -63%
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $60 −$2 -3%
Will Safepoint not IPO before August 2026? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -15%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 15 $9 $0 +0%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 15 $3 $0 -5%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $45 −$3 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $9 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $6 $0 -4%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 14 $17 −$3 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? Jun 14 $27 −$1 -2%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 14 $9 $0 -2%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 39 and 41 million views on day 2 Jun 14 $15 −$4 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? Jun 14 $7 $0 -2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 14 $2,106 +$21 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $6,383 −$17 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $23 −$2 -7%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $57 −$4 -7%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $50 −$3 -6%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $17 −$3 -19%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? Jun 14 $58 −$4 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -91%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $31 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $4,427 −$29 -1%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $51 −$3 -6%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $50 −$3 -6%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $112 −$6 -5%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 13 $11 −$1 -11%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 13 $1,446 −$14 -1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $929 +$37 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 11? Jun 11 $24 +$2 +7%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $1,417 −$23 -2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 10 $166 −$89 -54%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $1,220 +$4 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $614 +$2 +0%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 in June? Jun 10 $1,610 −$73 -4%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 22, 2026? Jun 09 $24 −$16 -66%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $227 −$9 -4%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $472 +$28 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? Jun 09 $1,157 −$116 -10%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $137 −$72 -52%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 07 $310 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 18? SELL Down 19¢ $11 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 20¢ $4 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 21¢ $4 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 21¢ $2 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 21¢ $2 1h
Spread: Panama (-1.5) BUY Ghana 93¢ $5 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $3 2h
Eileen Gu citizenship revoked ? SELL No 95¢ $21 2h
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? SELL No 89¢ $27 2h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Up 27¢ $9 16h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Up 25¢ $175 20h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Up 25¢ $146 20h
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? SELL No 97¢ $31 21h
Xi Jinping out before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $45 21h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 33¢ $66 22h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 35¢ $70 22h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 36¢ $17 22h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 36¢ $3 22h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 36¢ $27 22h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 38¢ $23 22h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 38¢ $7 22h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 38¢ $46 22h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 44¢ $88 24h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 46¢ $18 24h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 46¢ $60 24h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 46¢ $14 24h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 48¢ $10 25h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 54¢ $95 27h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 54¢ $13 27h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Up 49¢ $10 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.06 · official $3.06 (match) · 3500 history records