trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | -0.9% | -10.4% | 0% | 0% | -10.8% |
| ≤30d | 8 | +2.2% | -7.5% | 50% | 25% | -9.6% |
| ≤90d | 38 | +7.9% | -2.4% | 71% | 37% | -8.8% |
| all | 164 | +4.5% | -5.4% | 68% | 48% | -6.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -5.4% | 48% | -6.9% |
| 10% | -14.5% | 38% | -15.8% |
| 15% | -22.7% | 32% | -24.0% |
| 20% | -30.3% | 24% | -31.4% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? | No | 83¢ | 82¢ | $266 | $264 | −$2 (-1%) |
| Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? | Yes | 95¢ | 94¢ | $111 | $110 | −$1 (-1%) |
| Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $100 | $100 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 29? | Yes | 98¢ | 98¢ | $98 | $98 | +$1 (+1%) |
| Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | No | 97¢ | 98¢ | $29 | $30 | +$1 (+2%) |
| Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $20 | $20 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 5¢ | 4¢ | $16 | $12 | −$4 (-25%) |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | $10 | $11 | +$1 (+5%) |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 55¢ | 38¢ | $10 | $7 | −$3 (-31%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 24 | $1,286 | −$32 | -2% |
| Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? | Jun 23 | $193 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Jun 23 | $994 | −$2 | -0% |
| Spread: Spain (-4.5) | Jun 15 | $25 | +$5 | +22% |
| Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 15 | $41 | +$38 | +93% |
| Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.2T at market close on | Jun 12 | $29 | +$1 | +4% |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Jun 03 | $13 | −$13 | -100% |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? | Jun 03 | $20 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? | May 21 | $5 | $0 | +6% |
| Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? | May 21 | $5 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? | May 21 | $4 | +$1 | +18% |
| Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? | May 21 | $5 | $0 | +11% |
| Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? | May 21 | $4 | +$1 | +20% |
| Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? | May 21 | $5 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? | May 21 | $5 | $0 | +8% |
| Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? | May 21 | $5 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? | May 21 | $5 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? | May 21 | $5 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? | May 21 | $5 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? | May 21 | $6 | $0 | +8% |
| Will France win Eurovision 2026? | May 21 | $6 | $0 | +5% |
| Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? | May 08 | $2,987 | −$8 | -0% |
| Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? | Apr 28 | $1,481 | −$3 | -0% |
| Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Apr 19 | $185 | +$5 | +3% |
| Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Apr 15 | $1,422 | −$1 | -0% |
| Bulls vs. Mavericks | Apr 15 | $35 | +$15 | +43% |
| Warriors vs. Clippers | Apr 15 | $69 | +$31 | +45% |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? | Apr 12 | $1,099 | $0 | +0% |
| Heat vs. Raptors | Apr 12 | $12 | +$8 | +64% |
| Bulls vs. Wizards | Apr 12 | $56 | +$23 | +42% |
| Thunder vs. Clippers | Apr 09 | $690 | +$310 | +45% |
| Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets | Apr 08 | $40 | +$12 | +29% |
| Knicks vs. Hawks | Apr 06 | $20 | −$20 | -99% |
| Timberwolves vs. Pistons | Apr 06 | $300 | +$186 | +62% |
| Spread: Thunder (-14.5) | Apr 02 | $11 | +$9 | +80% |
| Spread: Celtics (-1.5) | Apr 02 | $54 | +$45 | +84% |
| Trail Blazers vs. Clippers | Mar 31 | $448 | −$444 | -99% |
| Knicks vs. Rockets | Mar 31 | $76 | −$75 | -98% |
| 76ers vs. Heat | Mar 30 | $12 | −$12 | -99% |
| Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? | Mar 30 | $592 | −$2 | -0% |
| Heat vs. Pacers | Mar 29 | $560 | −$560 | -100% |
| Rockets vs. Grizzlies | Mar 29 | $44 | +$6 | +14% |
| Pelicans vs. Raptors | Mar 29 | $525 | +$185 | +35% |
| Lakers vs. Pacers | Mar 27 | $4 | +$1 | +20% |
| Thunder vs. Celtics | Mar 25 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Timberwolves vs. Celtics | Mar 22 | $198 | −$198 | -100% |
| Grizzlies vs. Bulls | Mar 22 | $20 | +$9 | +45% |
| Mavericks vs. Pelicans | Mar 22 | $30 | +$10 | +33% |
| Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | Mar 16 | $20 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | Mar 16 | $20 | $0 | +2% |